Monday, April 8, 2013

Dow Theory Update for April 8: Stocks close up but fail to make higher highs



 Precious metals meandering


Finally, I have been able to post today my Dow Theory Commentary, albeit a short one.

Stocks

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. However, neither index managed to better the last recorded closing highs (04/02/2013).

Today’s volume was notoriously lower than yesterday’s, which make it, once again, a bearish volume day. This is the fourth bearish volume day in a row.

Gold and silver

Last Friday, GLD’s inventory declined again. Either it disintegrates through bleeding or gold is poised for an advance. However, as readers of this Dow Theory blog are well aware, even the best “laid out” fundamental idea must be supported by price action. Thus, I wait for the primary trend of gold to turn bullish.

GLD and SLV closed modestly down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

As to the gold and silver miners ETFs both closed down today. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

 

Data for April 8, 2013





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY



SPY
Bull market started
11/15/2012 135.7
Bull market signaled
01/02/2013 146.06
Last close
04/08/2013 156.21
Current stop level: Bear mkt low
135.7




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




6.95% 15.11% 7.63%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149.46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160.54
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low 11/02/2012 162.6




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.39% 7.83%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25.63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28.92
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 29
Current stop level: Sec React low 11/02/2012 29.95




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.28% 13.15%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17.08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21.83
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low 11/15/2012 21.87




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-0.64% 26.99% 27.81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39.56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47.77
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low 12/05/2012 45.35




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-6.72% 12.64% 20.75%


Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist

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