Dow Theory Update for April 25: Gold retraces almost ½ of lost ground

Stocks closed up near highest highs

 

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary in this blog.

Stocks

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish.

Today’s volume was higher than yesterday’s, which is bullish and higher prices were supported by expanding volume. We have had 3 bullish volume days in a row. I’d label the overall picture of volume as neutral. Here you have an updated chart.

Volume is becoming neutral.

Gold and silver

GLD lost inventory yesterday. At this pace, GLD will be drained before the end of 2013. Something has to give in.

Zero Hedge reports that today silver had its best day in 15 months. Such momentum explosions (when they occur near bottoms) tend to be bullish and signal a change of trend. However, I’d rather trust less arcane and more solid Dow Theory to spot a change of trend. I am in no need to call the absolute market top or bottom. I am happy with spotting a change of trend soon enough to get in or out and get the "meat" that resides in the middle of a trend.

Gold has retraced almost ½ of the losses made since April 12. Let’s see if the rally holds and doesn’t fizzle out. 

GLD and SLV closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

As to the gold and silver miners ETFs, GDX and SIL, both closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

 Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today. 

 

Data for April 25, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135.7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146.06
Last close		04/25/2013	158.52
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			135.7
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
8.53%	16.82%	7.63%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162.6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.39%	7.83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29.95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.28%	13.15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/15/2012	21.87
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0.64%	26.99%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low		12/05/2012	45.35
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-6.72%	12.64%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist.