Primary and secondary trends for precious metals unchanged
A primary bear market for
US stocks was signaled on August 14th, 2019 as explained here.
A secondary reaction
against the primary bear market was signaled on August 30, as explained here.
On 09/19/2019 the Transports declined more than 3%
from their secondary reaction closing highs. On that date the setup for a primary
bull market was completed under Schannep’s Dow Theory (in other words, the
sequence: bear market low, secondary reaction and pullback on at least one
index was completed). Please mind that the final pullback against the secondary
reaction that sets up stocks for the primary bull market need not be confirmed.
More about the nuances about the confirmation principle that underlies the Dow
Theory here.
From 09/19/2019 until 09/24/2019 the Transports further
declined extending the total decline to -4.44%. The Industrials and S&P 500
have not managed to decline 3%.
Here you have a spreadsheet displaying the
calculations
And below you find the charts displaying the current
situation. The orange rectangle on the Transport’s chart (middle) displays the
pullback on 09/19/2019 (which was extended until 09/24/2019). The blue horizontal
lines display the secondary reaction highs which are the relevant levels to be
broken up for a primary bull market to be signaled.
GOLD AND SILVER
The primary trend is
bullish since 12/24/2018 as explained here. No changes. We finally got a secondary
reaction on 4/16/2019 when GLD violated its 03/07/2019 closing lows (and
confirmed SLV which had done so some days ago). More about the entrails of such
a secondary reaction here and here.
On June 18th,
2019 GLD managed to break up above the closing highs of the primary bull market
unconfirmed by SLV. Hence, at that
time we could not declare the end of the secondary reaction. However, on 07/18/2019 SLV broke up above its
hitherto primary bull market highs, and hence the primary bull market has been reconfirmed. From that date both GLD
and SLV have made further higher highs. A bull market.
Gold and silver have declined
for the last few days followed by a new rally. However, the time requirement has not been met yet.
Since the time requirement has not been met, I have not bothered with measuring
the extent requirement, as we need both to declare the existence of a secondary
reaction.
GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs
The primary trend is
bullish since 12/18/2018 as explained here. No changes.
On June 17th,
2019 GDX managed to break up above the closing highs of the primary bull market
unconfirmed by SIL. Hence, we could
not declare the end of the secondary reaction. However, on 07/17/2019 SIL broke up above its hitherto recorded primary bull
market highs, and the primary bull market was reconfirmed. Since that date
both ETFs have been making higher highs. A bull market.
GDX and SIL have declined
for the last few days followed by a new rally. However, the time requirement has not been met yet.
Since the time requirement has not been met, I have not bothered with measuring
the extent requirement, as we need both to declare the existence of a secondary
reaction.
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist