Dow Theory Update for October 24: More than six months without a secondary reaction in US stocks

Trends unchanged

US Stocks

The primary trend is bullish since November 21^st, 2016, as explained here and here.

The primary trend was reconfirmed on July 3^rd, 2017 as was explained here

The S&P 500, the Industrials and the Transports continue making higher confirmed highs. Thus, no secondary reaction in sight.

Furthermore, more than six months have elapsed without the occurrence of a secondary reaction. This is quite a long time. The charts below show the last recorded secondary reaction (orange rectangles) and the subsequent bullish swing which hitherto has not been interrupted.

Of course, we are dealing with an old cyclical bull market (more about cyclical bull markets, here), a “middle aged” primary bull market (now nearing 1 year old) and an “old” bull swing (the one that got started after the lows of the last secondary reaction  made on April 19^th (Industrials), April 13^th (SPY and Transports). All in all, if we weight in all the factors, it seems than a secondary reaction might be close at hand. 

A long, uninterrupted bull market swing within a middle aged primary bull market within an old cyclical bull market

  

GOLD AND SILVER

The primary trend was declared bearish on July 7^th, 2017, as explained here and here

The secondary trend is bullish, as was profusely explained here.

The pullback that got started on September 8^th, 2017 has unambiguously setup SLV and GLD for a primary bull market. An in-depth explanation here. Please mind that a “setup” is not the actual signal. So, if the primary bear market lows were jointly revisited the primary bear market would be reconfirmed.

GOLD AND SILVER MINERS EFTs

The primary trend is bearish, as was explained here and here.

The secondary trend is bullish as explained here

For the same reasons given when analyzing SLV and GLD, no primary bull market has been signaled for SIL and GDX, as explained here. GDX did not better its secondary reaction closing highs by a hair, but it failed to do so. Furthermore, SIL is very far from its secondary reaction closing highs. All in all, no primary bull market signal in sight.

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist

Dow Theory Update for October 11: Trends remain unchanged

Precious metals, and their miners remain in a bear market

I am writing before the close, so things might (very unlikely) change. 

 

US Stocks

The primary trend is bullish since November 21^st, 2016, as explained here and here.

The primary trend was reconfirmed on July 3^rd, 2017 as was explained here

The S&P 500, the Industrials and the Transports continue making higher confirmed highs. Thus, no secondary reaction in sight.

This trade could well last one year. The primary bull market signal was given on November, 21^st, 2016, but the lows of the last primary bear market were made on November 2^nd, 2016. Thus, the current bull swing got started on November 2^nd, 2016. We are nearing mid October, if a secondary reaction got started right now, it’d take at the very least some 3 weeks to develop into a primary bear market (at least some 2 weeks for the secondary reaction, plus a subsequent rally of 2 additional days to set up for a primary bear market signal). Thus, even if the current bull market would abruptly stop here, the next primary bear market signal would probably be signaled in November. All in all, the current trade resembles a “typical” Dow Theory trade.

Here you have a chart, which displays price action for the last few months. 

Charts show the last secondary reaction (orange rectangles) and subsequent bullish swing

GOLD AND SILVER

The primary trend was declared bearish on July 7^th, 2017, as explained here and here

The secondary trend is bullish, as was profusely explained here.

The pullback that got started on September 8^th, 2017 has unambiguously setup SLV and GLD for a primary bull market. An in-depth explanation here.

Of course, the pullback (orange rectangles on the right side of the charts), may likely end up in a violation of the last recorded primary bull market lows in which case the primary bear market would be reconfirmed.

If the blue horizontal lines were jointly broken up, a primary bull market would be signaled

GOLD AND SILVER MINERS EFTs

The primary trend is bearish, as was explained here and here.

The secondary trend is bullish as explained here

For the same reasons given when analyzing SLV and GLD, no primary bull market has been signaled for SIL and GDX, as explained here. GDX did not better its secondary reaction closing highs by a hair, but it failed to do so. Furthermore, SIL is very far from its secondary reaction closing highs. All in all, no primary bull market signal in sight.

If the blue horizontal lines we jointly violated a primary bull market would be signaled

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist