Friday, May 19, 2023

Dow Theory Update for May 19th: Secondary reaction for GDX and SIL signaled 5/16/23

 SIL and GDX in a secondary reaction against the bull market

Executive Summary:

1. The primary trend for gold and silver is bullish, and the secondary one is bearish.

2. The primary trend for SIL and GDX was signaled as bullish on 4/4/23. SIL and GDX are under a secondary bearish reaction against the still-existing primary bull market.

General Remarks:

This post thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions.

GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs

A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. 

The primary trend was signaled as bullish on 4/4/23, as explained HERE.


On 4/13/23, GDX and SIL made their last closing highs. Following such highs SIL dropped for more than 10 days, unconfirmed by GDX. On 5/16/23, GDX made a lower low, confirmed SIL, and accordingly, a secondary (bearish) reaction against the primary bull market was signaled. As to the extent requirement, it has also been fulfilled as GDX and SIL have amply exceeded the Volatility-Adjusted Minimum Movement (more about the VAMM HERE). 

The Table below shows the most recent developments. 

 

So, now we have the following options:

1) The most likely outcome is that we will get a >=2 days rally sooner or later, which exceeds the VAMM, thereby setting up both ETFs for a potential primary bear market signal.

2) if the two ETFs continue falling with no intervening rally, the joint penetration of the 3/9/23 closing lows (at 26.68 for GLD and 25.60 for SIL) would signal a new primary bear market. Such are the lows of the last primary bear market.

The charts below (top SIL, down GDX) display the most recent price action. The blue horizontal lines show the price level of the 1/25/13 closing highs, whose breakup signaled a new primary bull market on 4/4/23. The brown rectangles highlight the current secondary reaction. The read horizontal lines highlight the lows of last primary bear market (3/9/23).

Therefore, the primary trend is bullish, and the secondary trend is bearish.

B) Market situation if one sticks to the traditional interpretation demanding at least three weeks of movement to declare a secondary reaction.

The primary trend was signaled as bullish on 4/4/23, as explained HERE.

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2023/04/dow-theory-update-for-april-6-primary.html

In this specific instance, the trend appraisal using the “long-term” version of the Dow Theory yields the same results as the “short-term” one. The pullback amply exceeds 3 weeks, and the extent requirement is also met.  

Therefore, the primary trend is bullish, and the secondary trend is bearish.

Gold and Silver:

While not the object of this post, the primary trend for GLD and SLV is bullish, as explained HERE.

The table below gives a recap of the primary trend across the precious metals spectrum: 

 

We will see whether the ongoing secondary reactions will evolve into something worse: a primary bear market.

 Sincerely,

Manuel Blay

Editor of thedowtheory.com

Thursday, May 18, 2023

Dow Theory Update for May 18th: Secondary reaction for GLD and SLV signaled today

SIL and GDX in a secondary reaction against the bull market

Executive Summary:

1. The primary trend for gold and silver is bullish, and the secondary one is bearish.

2. The primary trend for SIL and GDX was signaled as bullish on 4/4/23. SIL and GDX are under a secondary bearish reaction against the still-existing primary bull market. I will produce a new post with all the details in the next few days.

General Remarks:

In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions.

GOLD AND SILVER

A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. 

I explained HERE that gold and silver have been in a primary bull market since 12/1/22.

The secondary trend was also bullish, as explained HERE.

On 5/4/23, GLD and SLV made their last closing highs. After that, both ETFs dropped for 10 trading days. So, the time requirement for a secondary reaction has been met. As to the extent requirement, it has also been fulfilled as GLD and SLV have amply exceeded the Volatility-Adjusted Minimum Movement (more about the VAMM HERE). 

The Table below shows the most recent developments. 


So, now we have the following options:

1) The most likely outcome is that we will get a >=2 days rally sooner or later, which exceeds the VAMM, thereby setting up both ETFs for a potential primary bear market signal.

2) if the two ETFs continue falling with no intervening rally, the joint penetration of the lows of the last completed (finalized) secondary reaction (2/24/23 at 168.35 for GLD and 3/8/23at 18.40 for SLV) would signal a new primary bear market.

The charts below (top SLV, down GLD) display the most recent price action. On the left, we can see the previous secondary reaction which was successfully canceled by higher confirmed highs. The red horizontal lines highlight the secondary reaction lows which constitute our current stop-loss. The grey small rectangles show a pullback that did not meet the time requirement and did not qualify as a secondary reaction. Finally, the brown rectangles on the right show the most recent drop.  

 

Therefore, the primary trend is bullish, and the secondary trend is bearish. My next post will deal with the gold and silver miners (GDX & SIL), which started to sag some days before GLD and SLV (not a good omen).

B) Market situation if one sticks to the traditional interpretation demanding at least three weeks of movement to declare a secondary reaction.

I explained HERE that gold and silver have been in a primary bull market since 12/1/22.

The current pullback does not meet the time requirement, so there is no secondary reaction and, accordingly, the secondary trend remains bullish.

Sincerely,

Manuel Blay

Editor of thedowtheory.com

Tuesday, May 16, 2023

Dow Theory Update for May 16th: Does your trend following system have a real edge? (II)

 Does your trend-following system have a real edge? Easy to know. Test the short side against stock indexes. The S&P500 returned an average of 10.15% since 1957. So, making money going against such an upward drift is not easy. If your system has timing accuracy, it should be profitable when going short. The table below shows the key performance figures resulting from shorting the S&P500 with my Composite Trend Indicator (made of the Dow Theory and the Blay Timing Indicator). Key insights:

The Profit Factor (total profit/total loss) is a remarkable 4.3. During the period tested, we were short only 10.57% of the time with a CAGR of 2.41% (which is equivalent to 22.80% if we had been invested all the time). The maximum peak-to-trough drawdown is a well-contained -17.45% vs. ca. 55% for Buy and Hold, and the average short lasted only 47.72 days.

Your may find the first post of this saga HERE.

Sincerely,

Manuel Blay

Editor of thedowtheory.com


Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Dow Theory Update for May 10th: Does your trend following system have a real edge?

 Does your trading system have a real edge? Easy to know. Test the short side against stock indexes. A persistent bullish bias in stocks is a headwind against shorts. If the trading system has timing accuracy, it should be profitable when going short. The chart below shows the equity curve resulting from shorting the S&P500 with my Composite Trend Indicator (made of the Dow Theory 21C and the Blay Timing Indicator). I applied the shorting signals to an array of ETFs. The numbers speak for themselves and will be posted soon.

 

Sincerely,

Manuel Blay

Editor of thedowtheory.com

Thursday, May 4, 2023

Dow Theory Update for May 4th: Interview with Jackson Carr (Stock Pilot) on the Dow Theory

I thank Jackson Carr (Stock Pilot) for bringing me to his show. We discussed what makes the Dow Theory one of the best trend-following systems, what makes Schannep’s Dow Theory even superior, our bottom picking Indicator, the requirements that all successful trend following strategies must meet, and much more. You may find the links to the interview below:

Spotify:

https://open.spotify.com/episode/4qU0BJBk1IIFXAYzg0AH18?si=270fa649c2b04a42&nd=1

Youtube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WK_ctqITHBM