Wednesday, February 10, 2021

An unsere deutschen Freunde: Danke für Ihre Treue! (To our German friends: Thx four your faithfulness!)

 

Ich möchte die Gelegenheit nutzen, alle in Deutschland ansässigen Follower dieses Blogs ausdrücklich zu begrüßen und für ihre langjährige Treue zu danken. Deutschland rangiert zusammen mit den USA bei den gelesenen Beiträgen auf Platz 1, wenn wir die Einwohnerzahl beider Länder unberücksichtigt lassen. Dies ist also eine beachtliche Leistung, wenn man bedenkt, dass der Hauptfokus dieses Blogs auf USD-denominierten Anlagen liegt. Eines Tages - in hoffentlich nicht allzu ferner Zukunft - hoffe ich, die Anwendung der Dow-Theorie auf deutsche Aktienindizes (z.B. DAX/MDAX) zu erforschen. Angesichts der Solidität der deutschen Wirtschaft, die zweifellos die stärkste und robusteste in Europa ist, halte ich die Anwendung der Dow-Theorie auf deutsche Aktienindizes für vielversprechend, um eine wachsende Wirtschaft zu erfassen und die gelegentlichen Bärenmärkte zu vermeiden. Da ich Deutsch spreche, ist es durchaus möglich, dass ich in Zukunft auch einen deutschen Abschnitt verfassen werde.

In der Zwischenzeit danke ich Ihnen für Ihr Interesse.

 

Mit freundlichen Grüssen

Manuel Blay

 

 

TRANSLATION: I greet all the followers of this blog based in Germany for your faithfulness. If we adjust for population, Germany ranks number one together with the USA in posts read. So this is quite a feat, given that this blog's primary focus is USD denominated assets. One day in the, hopefully, not so distant future, I hope to begin exploring the application of the Dow Theory to German stock indexes (i.e., DAX/MDAX). Given the German economy's solidity, undoubtedly, the best one in Europe, I feel the application of the Dow Theory to German stock indexes shows promise in capturing a growing economy and avoiding the occasional bear markets.  Given that I speak German, I might even write a German-dedicated section in Goethe's language.  In the meantime, I thank you for your interest.

Best regards,

Manuel Blay

Tuesday, February 9, 2021

Dow Theory Update for February 9th: Bear market in US bonds continues unabated

Precious metals unchanged 

 

Since I am writing before the close, things might change. So readers beware.

US STOCKS

Schannep’s Dow Theory (more properly: The Dow Theory for the 21st Century)

 


 On 1/31/2020, the primary trend was bullish since April 6th, 2020, as was explained here.

The secondary trend is bullish since 11/13/2020 (successful termination of a secondary reaction), as was explained here.

 

Please mind that lots of interesting research are being published at thedowtheory.com. For example, we are discussing profit objectives, clues as to new secondary reactions, impending tops, tests proving the value of the principle of confirmation, etc. So many things are going in our monthly Letter which are not being published on this blog.  So, I encourage you to become Subscribers, as you are missing a great piece of the action. Our "timing" has been spot on. Furthermore, Subscribers are alerted in real-time of any impending Buy or Sell signal, secondary reactions, etc. 

“Rhea’s /classical" Dow Theory

 

A) Market situation if one is to appraise secondary reactions not bound by the 3 weeks dogma.

 

The primary trend is bullish since 4/29/2020, as explained here. This primary bull market signal was determined by just demanding 13 and 18 trading days to appraise the secondary reaction that led to the primary bull market signal.

 

The secondary trend is also bullish, as was explained in depth here.

 

B) Market situation if one sticks to the traditional interpretation demanding more than three weeks of movement in order to declare a secondary reaction.

 

For those strictly demanding more than 15 confirmed days of declining prices, the primary bull market was signaled on 5/26/2020. More details about this alternative signal are to be found in our June 1st, 2020 Letter to Subscribers.

  

The secondary trend is also bullish, as was explained in depth here.

 

 GOLD AND SILVER ETFs & GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs


Nothing has changed since my post of January 30th, 2021.

 

The table below summarizes the current status of trends depending on the way one applying the Dow Theory.

 


US INTEREST RATES

General Remarks:

 

In this post, I provided a thorough explanation concerning the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions in order to appraise secondary reactions.

 

TLT is the iShares 20 years + Treasury bond ETF. More about it here

IEF is the iShares 7-10 years Treasury bond ETF. More about it here.

Thus, TLT tracks longer-term US bonds, whereas TLT tracks middle term US bonds. A bull market in bonds entails lower interest rates. A bear market in bonds represents higher interest rates.

 

A) Market situation if one is to appraise secondary reactions not bound by the 3 weeks and 1/3 retracement dogma.

  

The primary trend was signaled as bearish on October 5th, 2020, as was explained in-depth here.

 

None of the small rallies that developed after the primary bear market signal resulted in a secondary reaction. On 2/5/2021 a lower confirmed low was made, so the primary bear market remains in force.

 

Here you have updated charts:

 


 

B) Market situation if one sticks to the traditional interpretation demanding more than three weeks and 1/3 confirmed retracement in order to declare a secondary reaction.

 

The primary trend and secondary trend was signaled as bearish on January 6th, 2021, as was explained here.

 

On 2/5/2021 a lower confirmed low was made, so the primary bear market remains in force.

 

Here you have updated charts:

 

Sincerely,

Manuel Blay

(one Dow Theorist)