Dow Theory Update for April 11: Stocks make higher highs

Transports fail to join the bullish parade

Zero Hedge sees a correction coming

Zero Hedge has noted that, of late, credit markets seem to be a good predictor of stock market activity. In other words, when credit markets swoon, stocks tend to follow suit.

Recent action (declines and shares redeemed) in JNK ETF seems to suggest that stocks are going to face headwind soon. As followers of this Dow Theory blog are well aware, volume has been bearish for weeks now, so a secondary reaction wouldn’t come as a surprise. However, I give priority to price action itself and, until now, the trend has not changed.

Stocks

The SPY and Industrials closed up. The Transports closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish.

Volume today contracted as prices advanced. This makes it a bearish volume day.

Gold and silver

GLD puked yesterday 16.84 tonnes, which is more than Cyprus's gold holdings. I again encourage my readers to read Fofoa’s latest post to find plausible explanations as to the deep meaning of what is happening to GLD’s inventories.

GLD and SLV closed up. The primary and secondary trend is bearish.

GDX and SIL, the gold and silver miners ETFs, closed down. The primary and secondary trend is bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

 

Data for April 11, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135.7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146.06
Last close		04/11/2013	159.19
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			135.7
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
8.99%	17.31%	7.63%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162.6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.39%	7.83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29.95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.28%	13.15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/15/2012	21.87
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0.64%	26.99%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low		12/05/2012	45.35
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-6.72%	12.64%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist