Wednesday, June 28, 2023

The Dow Theory explained: Shane Skwarek (CMT Association) interviewed Manuel Blay


A couple of months ago, I was interviewed by Shane Skwarek (CMT Association). It was great fun being there. We covered many topics, not only stocks but notably the short side of the Dow Theory and its successful application to the bond market. Finally, the presentation is also available for non-members of the CMT Association by clicking here:


Wednesday, June 21, 2023

Dow Theory Update for June 21: Primary Bear market for GLD and SLV signaled on 6/21/23

Executive Summary:

1. The primary trend for gold and silver was signaled as bearish on 6/21/23. More in-depth info is below.

2. The primary trend for gold and silver ETF miners (GDX and SIL) turned bearish on 6/20/23. More info HERE.

General Remarks:

This post thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. 


I explained HERE that gold and silver have been in a primary bull market since 12/1/22.

In this post, I explained that the setup for a primary bear market signal had been completed on 6/1/23.

On 6/21/23, GLD and SLV broke down below their 5/18/23 secondary reaction lows, signaling a primary bear market. The Table below shows the relevant prices.  

The charts below show the most recent price action that led to the primary bear market signal. The brown rectangles highlight the secondary reaction that started from the 5/4/23 highs. The blue rectangles display the rally that followed the secondary reaction lows. The red horizontal lines highlight the secondary reaction lows (the relevant level to be pierced for a new bear market).

So, now the primary and secondary trend is bearish.

B) Market situation if one sticks to the mainstream interpretation demanding at least three weeks of movement to declare a secondary reaction.

I explained HERE that gold and silver have been in a primary bull market since 12/1/22.

In this specific instance, the trend appraisal using the “long-term” version of the Dow Theory yields the same results as the “short-term” one. So, the setup for a potential primary bear market signal has been completed. Please check the table, charts, and explanation given above.

Therefore, the primary and secondary trends are bearish.

The table below gives a recap of the primary trend across the precious metals spectrum: 


Manuel Blay

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