Dow Theory Update for April 23: Stocks closed up but fail to better recent highs

Precious metals fail to reverse bearish trends

Russell warns of excessive bullishness among investment advisors

In his last two Dow Theory Letters, Richard Russell has warned that bullish advisers clearly outnumber bearish advisers.

Normally, such excessive bullishness tends to beget at the very least a secondary reaction.

However, as readers of this Dow Theory blog are well aware, market action will have the last word. If a secondary reaction is coming we will soon know. In the meantime, we study diligently the markets.

Stocks

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. However, in spite of recent price advances, no index has been able to better the last recorded highs as shown on the chart below (the horizontal red line shows the high-water mark). I am wondering whether the secondary reaction has turned bearish. I need further study which I hope to complete tomorrow in order to pronounce my verdict. The primary trend is bullish.

Markets are failing to better the last recorded highs (horizontal red lines)

Today’s volume was higher than yesterday’s, which is bullish. The overall pattern of volume remains bearish.

Gold and silver

Is GLD being bled to death? So it seems as inventory losses is gaining momentum. Here you can find the latest data:

http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/assets/dynamic/GLD/GLD_US_archive_EN.csv

GLD and SLV closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

SIL and GDX, the gold and silver miners ETF, closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

 

Data for April 23, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135.7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146.06
Last close		04/23/2013	157.78
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			135.7
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
8.02%	16.27%	7.63%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162.6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.39%	7.83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29.95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.28%	13.15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/15/2012	21.87
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0.64%	26.99%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low		12/05/2012	45.35
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-6.72%	12.64%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist