Monday, July 19, 2021

Dow Theory Update for July 19: No primary bear market in precious metals despite the current decline

 US Bonds and Stocks continue in primary bull market



I must be hopping on a plane, so I don’t have much time to blog. I am writing well before the close, so things might change. Readers, beware and do your own homework. 




My assessment of June 21st, 2021, remains in force.


Nonetheless, a setup for a primary bear market signal has been completed. Despite today’s market rout, no primary bear market signal has been signaled, as GLD remains well above its 6/29/2021 secondary reaction lows. If or when GLD pierces its 6/29 closing lows, a primary bear market would be signaled. As soon as I find time, I’ll produce an in-depth post explaining the entrails of the current setup. 




My assessment of June 21st, 2021 remains in force.



Unlike SLV and GLD, I discern no setup for a primary bear market signal. The rally off the last recorded secondary reaction lows (7/8 for SIL and 6/29 for GDX) has not met the minimum volatility-adjusted movement. So our stop-loss remains at the last recorded primary bear market lows of 3/30/21 (SIL) and 3/01/21 (GDX). 


As to the other markets I cover (US stocks and US bonds), there are no changes: We ride the bull. 

Manuel Blay

Co-Editor of

Thursday, July 8, 2021

Dow Theory Special Issue: Assessing the Dow Theory’s performance when applied to precious metals and their miners: Whole study


I have merged the following three posts into one, which has become a “page” (see the heading of this blog):

 If you want to become convinced about the superiority of the Dow Theory over other trend following strategies and check by yourself the outperformance of the trades that were signaled “live” in this blog since 2012, please check the link below.


Manuel Blay

Co-Editor of