Dow Theory Update for April 30: SPY makes new unconfirmed higher highs

 Gold stronger than silver

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today in this blog.

Alternative explanation to GLD “pukes."

Here and here you can find two views on GLD inventory drain. According to them, nothing nasty is about to happen to GLD or paper gold. Since Bron Suchecki, who works at the Perth Mint, is a real “insider” and not just a phony “expert” I wouldn’t discard his thoughts out of hand.

In any instance, my take is as follows. Physical gold is to be in one’s possession or the closest thing to it (i.e. fully allocated gold in bullion ). I see it as a long term insurance with the potential for a windfall profit, and such core physical gold holding is not to be traded, not even under the Dow Theory. However, when it comes to “paper gold” it is a fully tradable item whose trading can benefit from the Dow Theory.

Stocks

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The SPY made a higher high, which, once again, remains unconfirmed by the other indices. Such a lack of confirmation shouldn’t last too long if the primary trend is to dodge, once again, a secondary reaction.

Today’s volume was higher than yesterday, which is bullish as higher prices were supported by expanding volume.

Gold and Silver

Although it is a “no-new”, GLD “puked” once again. Is demand for allocated gold forcing the bullion banks to redeem GLD in search for physical?

GLD closed up. SLV closed down. The primary trend is bearish, and the secondary trend is bullish. Yes, the secondary trend, turned bulish yesterday, as you can read here.

 

GDX and SIL the gold and silver miners ETFs, closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish. However, a further “push” upwards exceeding the last minor recorded highs (04/25/2013 for SIL and GDX) would turn the secondary trend as bullish. In the meantime, we peacefully observe the markets.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today.

 

Data for April 30, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135.7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146.06
Last close		04/30/2013	159.68
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			135.7
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
9.32%	17.67%	7.63%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162.6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.39%	7.83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29.95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.28%	13.15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/15/2012	21.87
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0.64%	26.99%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low		12/05/2012	45.35
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-6.72%	12.64%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist