Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Dow Theory Update for April 16: Gold and silver still licking their wounds




Stocks moderately up


Turd Ferguson has elaborated on the two alternative end games for gold

I blogged yesterday that I am seeing two distinct outcomes for gold. In a nutshell: Either we are just undergoing a severe correction and even the end of the bull market, or we are getting very close to the demise of all gold surrogates, namely “paper gold” which will be followed by a reset of the gold price.


Turd Ferguson in his “tfmetalsreport” blog further expounds such two alternative scenarios. I feel it is a must-read for all gold holders.


Stocks

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The primary and secondary trend is bullish.

Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Advancing prices were not met by expanding volume, which is bearish.

In spite of the pivot high we say on 04/10/2013 (which was a bullish pivot), the overall pattern of volume is bearish as there are more “minuses” than “pluses." The chart below says it all:

A modest rebound: Volume retreated


Gold and silver

GLD and SLV closed up, albeit with indecision, which IMHO, is bearish. In any instance, the primary and secondary trend for gold and silver is bearish.

GDX didn’t even manage to close up and closed…down. SIL closed modestly up. The primary and secondary trend is bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:


Data for April 16, 2013





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY



SPY
Bull market started
11/15/2012 135.7
Bull market signaled
01/02/2013 146.06
Last close
04/16/2013 157.41
Current stop level: Bear mkt low
135.7




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




7.77% 16.00% 7.63%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149.46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160.54
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low 11/02/2012 162.6




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.39% 7.83%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25.63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28.92
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 29
Current stop level: Sec React low 11/02/2012 29.95




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.28% 13.15%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17.08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21.83
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low 11/15/2012 21.87




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-0.64% 26.99% 27.81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39.56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47.77
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low 12/05/2012 45.35




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-6.72% 12.64% 20.75%



Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist

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