Dow Theory Update for April 16: Gold and silver still licking their wounds

Stocks moderately up

Turd Ferguson has elaborated on the two alternative end games for gold

I blogged yesterday that I am seeing two distinct outcomes for gold. In a nutshell: Either we are just undergoing a severe correction and even the end of the bull market, or we are getting very close to the demise of all gold surrogates, namely “paper gold” which will be followed by a reset of the gold price.

Turd Ferguson in his “tfmetalsreport” blog further expounds such two alternative scenarios. I feel it is a must-read for all gold holders.

Stocks

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The primary and secondary trend is bullish.

Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Advancing prices were not met by expanding volume, which is bearish.

In spite of the pivot high we say on 04/10/2013 (which was a bullish pivot), the overall pattern of volume is bearish as there are more “minuses” than “pluses." The chart below says it all:

A modest rebound: Volume retreated

Gold and silver

GLD and SLV closed up, albeit with indecision, which IMHO, is bearish. In any instance, the primary and secondary trend for gold and silver is bearish.

GDX didn’t even manage to close up and closed…down. SIL closed modestly up. The primary and secondary trend is bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

Data for April 16, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135.7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146.06
Last close		04/16/2013	157.41
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			135.7
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
7.77%	16.00%	7.63%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162.6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.39%	7.83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29.95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.28%	13.15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/15/2012	21.87
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0.64%	26.99%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low		12/05/2012	45.35
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-6.72%	12.64%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist