Dow Theory Update for April 26: Stocks meandering

 GLD cannot stop puking

Doug Short reports durable goods orders plunged in March

Doug Short, a market analyst I respect, reported in Seeking Alpha that durable goods orders collapsed in March. He makes a conclusive case (supported by charts) that there is a strong correlation between durable goods orders and subsequent S&P performance. If past experience is to be proven right again, we should brace ourselves for a secondary reaction, which, hitherto, the market has stubbornly dodged.

Stocks

The Transports and the Industrials closed up. The SPY closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish.

Volume contracted today, which is bullish as declining prices in the S&P and broad indices like Nasdaq were not supported by expanding volume.

Gold and silver

GLD lost inventory again. GLD’s inventory’s malaise is not unique to this ETF. There is a run on physical gold and, thus, as reported by GoldSeek.com, gold is disappearing from all depositories. Thus, over the past 4 weeks total inventories collapsed by over 5.5. million ounces. This is not small potatoes. Where is the gold going? Who is so desperately seeking physical gold? The bullion banks in order to meet allocation demands? Why such deluge of allocation requests? Has it something to do with the USD? These are questions that any inquisitive mind should pose. I am not so sure about the answers, but at least we have to be inquisitive enough to smell a rat. At the risk of repeating myself, I feel that the best answers have been given by blogger Fofoa whom you can read here.

GLD and SLV closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

GDX and SIL, the gold and silver miners ETFs closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

 

Data for April 26, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135.7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146.06
Last close		04/26/2013	158.24
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			135.7
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
8.34%	16.61%	7.63%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162.6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.39%	7.83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29.95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.28%	13.15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/15/2012	21.87
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0.64%	26.99%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low		12/05/2012	45.35
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-6.72%	12.64%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist