Dow Theory Update for April 20th: Secondary Reaction for US Stocks signaled on April 13th.

Trends in precious metals unchanged

 

US STOCKS

The primary trend is bullish since November 21^st, 2016, as explained here and here.

On April 13^th, the Industrials declined more than 3% (from their March 1^st, 2017 closing highs). Since the Transports had already declined more than 3%, the extent requirement for a secondary reaction to exist was met.

The S&P 500 did not decline 3% (it merely declined -2.79%). However, under Schannep’s Dow Theory, it merely suffices two indices to confirm as to the time or extent requirement is concerned.

Here you have the specific calculations concerning the decline:

 

As to the time requirement, it had been amply met in the past, as explained here.

On April 13^th, the Industrials, Transports and S&P 500 had declined for    31 trading days. On April 19^th, the Industrials made a lower closing low, which extended its decline to 33 trading days.

All in all, stocks are now under a secondary reaction. Now, at least one index should rally more than 3% off the hitherto recorded secondary reaction closing lows in order to set up stocks for a primary bear market signal. I am writing before the close so nothing I write is final. It seems, though, that the Transports might be rallying by more of 3%. Let’s wait and see.

Here you have an updated chart. The orange rectangles display the ongoing secondary reaction:

 

US Stocks under secondary reaction

Have we seen the top for stocks? And we are heading towards a primary bear market signal. See my thoughts on this topic here

GOLD AND SILVER

The primary trend turned bullish on April 12^th, 2017 as explained here

  

The secondary trend is bullish too. 

As an aside, it is worth mentioning that the primary trend when using weekly bars is bearish, which tends to be headwind for any meaningful bullish action. Furthermore, the gold and silver miners ETFs remain in a primary bear market, unless a bullish confirmation comes soon, I see even more headwind.

GOLD AND SILVER MINERS EFTs

The primary trend is bearish, as was explained here and here.

The secondary trend is bullish as explained here

As was explained here, SIL and GDX have set up for a primary bull market signal.
 

If the last recorded primary bear market lows were jointly revisited, the primary bear market would be reconfirmed.

As an aside, it is worth mentioning that the primary trend when using weekly bars is bearish, which tends to be headwind for any meaningful bullish action.

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist

Dow Theory Update for April 12: Primary bull market signaled for Silver and Gold today

Trends for precious metals ETFs and US stocks unchanged

US STOCKS

The primary and secondary trend is bullish since November 21^st, 2016, as explained here and here.

On March 1, 2017, the Industrials, Transports and SPY made jointly higher highs. Since then the Industrials, Transports and SPY have declined. The decline for the Transports has hitherto lasted 14 days. The decline for the SPY and Industrials has lasted 18 days (last closing lows made on March 27^th). The Industrials and Transports have declined -2.67% and -6.91% respectively. The SPY has declined -2.56% (The S&P 500 – 2-27%).

Under Schannep’s Dow Theory, at least two indices should decline more than 3% in order to declare the existence of a secondary reaction (extent requirement). Hence, given that only the Transports have declined more than 3%, the extent requirement has not been met.

As far as time is concerned, under Schannep’s Dow Theory, a secondary reaction must last a minimum of 10 calendar days on 2 of the 3 indices with at least 8 trading days as the average of all three indices. The Transports have declined for 14 trading days, whereas the Industrials and SPY have declined for 18 trading days. Hence, the time requirement has been amply met.

Here you have an updated chart.

In spite of mild declines, no secondary reaction yet

Have we seen the top for stocks? See my thoughts on this topic here

GOLD AND SILVER

The primary trend turned bullish today. GLD broke up its secondary reaction closing highs (February 24^th) on April 11^th. SLV confirmed today April 12^th by breaking up its secondary reaction closing highs of March 1^st.

As an aside, it is worth mentioning that the primary trend when using weekly bars is bearish, which tends to be headwind for any meaningful bullish action. Furthermore, the gold and silver miners ETFs remain in a primary bear market, unless a bullish confirmation comes soon, I see even more headwind.

Here you have an updated chart. The blue horizontal lines display the closing highs of the secondary reaction (blue rectangles on the right side of the charts) which had to be broken up.

 

Primary bull market (with daily bars) signaled today for SLV and GLD

GOLD AND SILVER MINERS EFTs

The primary trend is bearish, as was explained here and here.

The secondary trend is bullish as explained here

As was explained here, SIL and GDX have set up for a primary bull market signal.
 

If the last recorded primary bear market lows were jointly revisited, the primary bear market would be reconfirmed.

In the last few days we have seen a confirmed rally. Nonetheless, such rally hasn’t changed the technical picture.

As an aside, it is worth mentioning that the primary trend when using weekly bars is bearish, which tends to be headwind for any meaningful bullish action.

Here you have an updated chart:

 

For the time being just a secondary reaction (blue rectangles right side of the charts) within a primary bear market

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist

Dow Theory Update for April 6: Trends unchanged

No secondary reaction for stocks yet

US STOCKS

The primary and secondary trend is bullish since November 21^st, 2016, as explained here and here.

On March 1, 2017, the Industrials, Transports and SPY made jointly higher highs. Since then the Industrials, Transports and SPY have declined. The decline for the Transports has hitherto lasted 14 days. The decline for the SPY and Industrials has lasted 18 days (last closing lows made on March 27^th). The Industrials and Transports have declined -2.67% and -6.91% respectively. The SPY has declined -2.56% (The S&P 500 – 2-27%).

Under Schannep’s Dow Theory, at least two indices should decline more than 3% in order to declare the existence of a secondary reaction (extent requirement). Hence, given that only the Transports have declined more than 3%, the extent requirement has not been met.

As far as time is concerned, under Schannep’s Dow Theory, a secondary reaction must last a minimum of 10 calendar days on 2 of the 3 indices with at least 8 trading days as the average of all three indices. The Transports have declined for 14 trading days, whereas the Industrials and SPY have declined for 18 trading days. Hence, the time requirement has been amply met.

Here you have an updated chart.

No secondary reaction yet

Have we seen the top for stocks? See my thoughts on my last post here

GOLD AND SILVER

The primary trend is bearish, as was explained here and here. The primary bear market was signaled on September 30rd, 2016.

The secondary trend is bullish (secondary bullish reaction against the primary bear market), as explained here.

As was explained here, SLV and GLD have set up for a primary bull market signal. Please mind that "setup" is not tantamount to the actual signal. If the last recorded primary bear market lows were jointly revisited, the primary bear market would be reconfirmed.

 In the last few days we have seen a confirmed rally. Nonetheless, such rally hasn’t changed the technical picture.

As an aside, it is worth mentioning that the primary trend when using weekly bars is bearish, which tends to be headwind for any meaningful bullish action.

GOLD AND SILVER MINERS EFTs

The primary trend is bearish, as was explained here and here.

The secondary trend is bullish as explained here

As was explained here, SIL and GDX have set up for a primary bull market signal.
 

If the last recorded primary bear market lows were jointly revisited, the primary bear market would be reconfirmed.

In the last few days we have seen a confirmed rally. Nonetheless, such rally hasn’t changed the technical picture.

As an aside, it is worth mentioning that the primary trend when using weekly bars is bearish, which tends to be headwind for any meaningful bullish action.

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist