Dow Theory Update for April 19: The moment of truth for stocks

 Will the decline be arrested or a mere respite before the fall?

It seems that all markets are testing the waters before either starting a new rally or resume declines. Under Dow Theory, there are no changes in trends.

Stocks

The SPY, Industrials, and Transports closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish.

Today’s volume was higher than yesterday’s. Since prices closed up, it has a bullish implication.

Gold and silver

Once again, GLD “puked” gold yesterday. Will it be bled until extinction?

GLD closed up, SLV closed unchanged. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

SIL and GDX, the silver and gold miners ETFs, closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today.

 

Data for April 18, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135.7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146.06
Last close		04/18/2013	155.48
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			135.7
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
6.45%	14.58%	7.63%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162.6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.39%	7.83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29.95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.28%	13.15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/15/2012	21.87
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0.64%	26.99%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low		12/05/2012	45.35
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-6.72%	12.64%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist