Friday, April 5, 2013

Dow Theory Update for April 5: Gold and silver up once again




Stocks weak in spite of closing rally


 Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary in this blog.

Bill Gross teaches us to be humble

Bill Gross, of PIMCO fame, in his article “A man in the mirror”, has made an exercise in humility. He concedes that most applauded gurus have enormously benefited by unusual secular tailwind. He thinks that a 40-year successful track record is no confirmation of “greatness” in the business of investing because unlimited credit expansion has lifted many boats.

It is a sobering piece, which every investor should read. You can find Gross’ article here.

Stocks

The SPY and Industrials closed down. The Transports closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish.

Today’s volume was higher than yesterday. Since stock closed down it has a bearish connotation as declining prices were supported by expanding volume. This is the third bearish volume day in a row within an overall bearish volume picture as reported here.


Gold and silver

GLD inventory did not budge yesterday.

GLD and SLV closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

GDX and SIL, the gold and silver miners ETFs closed down and up respectively.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

 

Data for April 5, 2013





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY



SPY
Bull market started
11/15/2012 135.7
Bull market signaled
01/02/2013 146.1
Last close
04/05/2013 155.2
Current stop level: Bear mkt low
135.7




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




6.23% 14.34% 7.63%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149.5
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160.5
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 161.2
Current stop level: Sec React low 11/02/2012 162.6




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.39% 7.83%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25.63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28.92
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 29
Current stop level: Sec React low 11/02/2012 29.95




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.28% 13.15%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17.08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21.83
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low 11/15/2012 21.87




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-0.64% 26.99% 27.81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39.56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47.77
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low 12/05/2012 45.35




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-6.72% 12.64% 20.75%


Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist

No comments:

Post a Comment