Dow Theory Update for April 5: Gold and silver up once again

Stocks weak in spite of closing rally

 Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary in this blog.

Bill Gross teaches us to be humble

Bill Gross, of PIMCO fame, in his article “A man in the mirror”, has made an exercise in humility. He concedes that most applauded gurus have enormously benefited by unusual secular tailwind. He thinks that a 40-year successful track record is no confirmation of “greatness” in the business of investing because unlimited credit expansion has lifted many boats.

It is a sobering piece, which every investor should read. You can find Gross’ article here.

Stocks

The SPY and Industrials closed down. The Transports closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish.

Today’s volume was higher than yesterday. Since stock closed down it has a bearish connotation as declining prices were supported by expanding volume. This is the third bearish volume day in a row within an overall bearish volume picture as reported here.

Gold and silver

GLD inventory did not budge yesterday.

GLD and SLV closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

GDX and SIL, the gold and silver miners ETFs closed down and up respectively.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

 

Data for April 5, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135.7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146.1
Last close		04/05/2013	155.2
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			135.7
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
6.23%	14.34%	7.63%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.5
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.5
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161.2
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162.6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.39%	7.83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29.95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.28%	13.15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/15/2012	21.87
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0.64%	26.99%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low		12/05/2012	45.35
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-6.72%	12.64%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist