Primary bear market re-confirmed in GDX and SIL
Investment fraternity bearish on stocks
Barry
Ritholtz blog “The Big Picture” reports
that the so-called “sell side indicator” is extremely bearish, meaning that
most investment professionals have a bearish outlook for stocks. Normally,
extreme readings tend to have “contrarian” outcomes. Thus, in the present
instance, pervasive bearishness seems to confirm that a primary bear market is
not yet in the cards.
Stocks
The SPY and
Industrials closed up. The Transports closed down. The primary and secondary
trend remains bullish.
Today’s
volume was higher than yesterday’s. Since it was an “up” day, it has a bullish
connotation as higher prices were met by expanding volume. We have had bullish
volume for three days in a row.
Gold and
Silver
GLD lost
inventory yesterday. The disconnect between paper, and physical gold is apparent.
Something gotta give in.
GLD and SLV closed
down. GLD, though, refused, once again, to make a lower low. The primary and
secondary trend remains bearish.
GDX and SIL
closed down and made jointly lower lows, thereby re-confirming the primary bear
market signal. As you can see in the chart below the horizontal line (previous
lows) has been jointly violated. The primary and secondary trend remains
bearish.
Primary bear market re-confirmed for GDX and SIL |
Here you have
the figures of the markets I monitor for today:
Data for April 2, 2013 | |||
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
SPY | |||
Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.06 | |
Last close | 04/02/2013 | 156.82 | |
Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 135.7 | ||
Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
7.37% | 15.56% | 7.63% | |
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
GLD | |||
Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.16 | |
Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
0.39% | 7.83% | ||
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
SLV | |||
Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
0.28% | 13.15% | ||
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
SIL | |||
Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 21.69 | |
Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/15/2012 | 21.87 | |
Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
-0.64% | 26.99% | 27.81% | |
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
GDX | |||
Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 44.56 | |
Current stop level: Sec React low | 12/05/2012 | 45.35 | |
Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
-6.72% | 12.64% | 20.75% |
Sincerely,
The Dow
Theorist.
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