Dow Theory Update for April 2: SPY and Industrials “in the clear”

 Primary bear market re-confirmed in GDX and SIL

Investment fraternity bearish on stocks

Barry Ritholtz blog “The  Big Picture” reports that the so-called “sell side indicator” is extremely bearish, meaning that most investment professionals have a bearish outlook for stocks. Normally, extreme readings tend to have “contrarian” outcomes. Thus, in the present instance, pervasive bearishness seems to confirm that a primary bear market is not yet in the cards.

Stocks

The SPY and Industrials closed up. The Transports closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish.

Today’s volume was higher than yesterday’s. Since it was an “up” day, it has a bullish connotation as higher prices were met by expanding volume. We have had bullish volume for three days in a row.

Gold and Silver

GLD lost inventory yesterday. The disconnect between paper, and physical gold is apparent. Something gotta give in.

GLD and SLV closed down. GLD, though, refused, once again, to make a lower low. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

GDX and SIL closed down and made jointly lower lows, thereby re-confirming the primary bear market signal. As you can see in the chart below the horizontal line (previous lows) has been jointly violated. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

Primary bear market re-confirmed for GDX and SIL

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

 

Data for April 2, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135.7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146.06
Last close		04/02/2013	156.82
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			135.7
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
7.37%	15.56%	7.63%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162.6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.39%	7.83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29.95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.28%	13.15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/15/2012	21.87
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0.64%	26.99%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low		12/05/2012	45.35
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-6.72%	12.64%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist.