Monday, December 31, 2012

Dow Theory Update for Dec 31: Stocks setting up for a primary bull market signal




 Precious metals up


Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today in this blog.

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The primary trend remains bearish and the secondary trend bullish.

It is noteworthy to highlight that a set up for a primary bull market signal was completed last Friday, December 28.

Thus, both the SPY and Industrials experienced on Dec 28 a pullback exceeding 3% from their 12/18/2012 highs (Industrials: 13350.96; SPY: 145.37). Such a pullback (even if unconfirmed) sets stocks up for a primary bull market signal if the 12/18/2012 highs are bettered.

In the meantime, we just have to wait.

Today’s volume was larger than Fridays, which has a bullish implication. The overall pattern of volume remains bearish.

Gold and silver closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

GDX and SIL closed up. The primary trend remains bullish and the secondary trend bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today.

 

Data for December 31, 2012





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bear market started
09/14/2012 147,24
Bear market signaled
11/16/2012 136,37
Last close
12/31/2012 142,41
Current stop level: Bull market high

147,24




Price chg since bear mkt signaled Tot decline since start bear mkt Max Pot Loss %




4,43% -3,28% -7,38%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149,46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160,54
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 161,16
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 162,6




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0,39% 7,83%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25,63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28,92
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 29
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 29,95




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0,28% 13,15%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17,08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21,83
Last close
12/31/2012 22,64
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

17,08




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




3,71% 32,55% 27,81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39,56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47,77
Last close
12/31/2012 46,39
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

39,56




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-2,89% 17,26% 20,75%


Sincerely,

The Dow Theory

Friday, December 28, 2012

Dow Theory Update for Dec 28: Bearish parade




 Stocks and precious metals closed down


Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary in this blog.

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down once again. The primary trend is bearish, and the secondary trend is bullish.

Volume was lower than yesterday’s. Since it was a down day, it has a bullish connotation. However, at least for the short term (i.e. two weeks) the overall pattern of volume is bearish.

Gold and silver closed down. Prices are consolidating around the Dec 20 lows. Given that the primary trend is bearish, the most likely outcome is a new leg down. Time will tell. In the meantime, the primary and secondary trend are bearish.

SIL and GDX closed down today. The primary trend remains bullish (albeit in its death throes) and the secondary trend bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:


Data for December 28, 2012





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bear market started
09/14/2012 147,24
Bear market signaled
11/16/2012 136,37
Last close
12/28/2012 140,03
Current stop level: Bull market high

147,24




Price chg since bear mkt signaled Tot decline since start bear mkt Max Pot Loss %




2,68% -4,90% -7,38%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149,46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160,54
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 161,16
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 162,6




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0,39% 7,83%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25,63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28,92
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 29
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 29,95




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0,28% 13,15%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL




SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17,08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21,83
Last close
12/28/2012 22,04
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

17,08




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




0,96% 29,04% 27,81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX




GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39,56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47,77
Last close
12/28/2012 44,93
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

39,56




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-5,95% 13,57% 20,75%




Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist

Thursday, December 27, 2012

Dow Theory Update for Dec 27: Stocks down once again



 Gold and silver up


The SPY, Industrials and the Transports closed down again. A rally, albeit small, is more than due. In the meantime, the primary trend remains bearish and the secondary trend bullish.

Volume today was higher than yesterday’s. Given that stocks closed down, it has a bearish connotation. The overall pattern of volume is bearish.

Gold and silver closed up. The primary trend and the secondary trend remains bearish.

The silver miners’ ETF (SIL) closed down today, whereas its gold peer (GDX) closed up today. The primary trend remains bullish, and the secondary trend remains bearish.

BLV (long-term bond term bond) closed for up for a second day in a row. However, technically BLV is bearish. The BLV/GLD ratio continues bullish in favor of BLV.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today.

 

Data for December 27, 2012





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bear market started
09/14/2012 147,24
Bear market signaled
11/16/2012 136,37
Last close
12/27/2012 141,56
Current stop level: Bull market high

147,24




Price chg since bear mkt signaled Tot decline since start bear mkt Max Pot Loss %




3,81% -3,86% -7,38%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149,46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160,54
Exit December 20
12/27/2012 161,16
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 162,6




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0,39% 7,83%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25,63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28,92
Exit December 20
12/27/2012 29,00
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 29,95




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0,28% 14,09%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17,08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21,83
Last close
12/27/2012 22,17
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

17,08




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




1,56% 29,80% 27,81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39,56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47,77
Last close
12/27/2012 45,44
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

39,56




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-4,88% 14,86% 20,75%

 
Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist