Dow Theory Update for August 29: Stocks consolidating. Secondary reaction unchanged

 Gold and silver miners modestly up

Stocks

The SPY, Transports, and Industrials closed up.

The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here.

The secondary is bearish, which implies an ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend, as explained here. The chart below displays the current state of the secondary reaction (red rectangles), which has been with us since early August. 

A text-book secondary reaction (red rectangles on the right side of the chart)

 

Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Since stocks closed up, contracting volume has a bearish connotation, as higher prices were not confirmed by volume. I’d label current volume readings as neutral.

Gold and Silver

SLV, and GLD closed down. For the reasons I explained here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

GDX and SIL closed up. SIL and GDX, unlike GLD and SLV, are unambiguously in a primary bull market under the Dow Theory, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bullish as well.

Here you have the figures for the SPY, GDX and SIL which represents the only markets with suggested open long positions.

 

DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		06/24/2013	157.06
Bull market signaled		07/18/2013	168.87
Last close		08/29/2013	164.17
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			157.06
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-2.78%	4.53%	7.52%

DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		06/26/2013	10.59
Bull market signaled		08/14/2013	15.36
Last close		08/29/2013	15.58
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low		06/26/2013	10.59
Unrealized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
1.43%	47.12%	45.04%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		06/26/2013	22.22
Bull market signaled		08/14/2013	28.7
Last close		08/29/2013	28.54
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low		06/26/2013	22.22
Unrealized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0.56%	28.44%	29.16%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist