Precious metals consolidating
Let’s get started with our Dow
Theory commentary for today.
Stocks
The SPY, Industrials, and
Transports closed down.
The secondary is bearish,
which implies an ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend,
as explained here.
Today’s volume was higher than
Tuesday’s. Since stocks closed down, expanding volume has a bearish
connotation, as lower prices were not confirmed by volume. For the reasons I
gave here,
I’d say that volume is bullish. Furthermore, the last breakup of 08/01 was a
bullish pivot, as was explained here.
Gold and Silver
SLV, and GLD closed down. For
the reasons I explained here,
I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here
I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The
primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here.
The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish
trend), as explained here.
GDX and SIL closed DOWN, and,
unlike GLD and SLV, are unambiguously in a primary bull market under the Dow
Theory, as explained here and here. The secondary
trend is bullish as well.
Here you have the figures for
the SPY, GDX and SIL which represents the only markets with suggested open long
positions.
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
SPY | |||
Bull market started | 06/24/2013 | 157.06 | |
Bull market signaled | 07/18/2013 | 168.87 | |
Last close | 08/21/2013 | 164.56 | |
Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 157.06 | ||
Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
-2.55% | 4.78% | 7.52% |
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
SIL | |||
Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 15.36 | |
Last close | 08/21/2013 | 15.28 | |
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
-0.52% | 44.29% | 45.04% | |
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
GDX | |||
Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 28.7 | |
Last close | 08/21/2013 | 28.93 | |
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
0.80% | 30.20% | 29.16% |
Sincerely,
The Dow
Theorist
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