Dow Theory Update for August 19: Deflationary day

Trends unchanged.

At last, one day without significant DowTheory events. Thus, after some lengthy posts, today I am going to keep it short in this Dow Theory blog.

Stocks

The SPY, Transports, and Industrials closed down.

The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here.

The secondary turned bearish, which implies an ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend, as explained here.

Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Since stocks closed down, contracting volume has a bullish connotation, as lower prices were not confirmed by volume. For the reasons I gave here, I’d say that volume is bullish. Furthermore, the last breakup of 08/01 was a bullish pivot, as was explained here.

Gold and Silver

SLV closed up (by one cent), and GLD closed down. For the reasons I explained here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

GDX and SIL closed down, and, unlike GLD and SLV, are unambiguously in a primary bull market under the Dow Theory, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bullish as well.

Last weekend, I posted a new episode of my saga "Face off: Schannep versus "classical" Dow Theory", which you can find here.

  

Here you have the figures for the SPY, GDX and SIL which represents the only markets with suggested open long positions.

 

DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		06/24/2013	157.06
Bull market signaled		07/18/2013	168.87
Last close		08/19/2013
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			157.06
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-100.00%	-100.00%	7.52%

DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		06/26/2013	10.59
Bull market signaled		08/14/2013	15.36
Last close		08/19/2013	15.33
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low		06/26/2013	10.59
Unrealized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0.20%	44.76%	45.04%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		06/26/2013	22.22
Bull market signaled		08/14/2013	28.7
Last close		08/19/2013	29.23
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low		06/26/2013	22.22
Unrealized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
1.85%	31.55%	29.16%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist