Dow Theory Update for August 2: Trends remain unchanged

Stocks closed mostly up.

Let’s begin our Dow Theory commentary for today.

Stocks

The SPY and Industrials closed up. The Transports closed down.

The primary and secondary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here.

Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Since overall the stocks market was “up”, contracting volume has a bearish connotation.

Gold and Silver

SLV closed up, and GLD closed down. The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

GDX and SIL, the gold and silver miners ETFs closed down

The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here.

The secondary trend for GDX and SIL is bullish, as explained here.

If the pullback in the precious metals arena continues, we could get the setup for a primary bull market signal (remember the sequence: secondary reaction against primary bear market, pullback and subsequent breakup of the secondary reaction highs). I will be monitoring the magnitude of the decline.

Here you have the figures for the SPY, which represents the only market with a suggested open long position.

 

Data for August 2, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		06/24/2013	157.06
Bull market signaled		07/18/2013	168.87
Last close		08/02/2013	170.95
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			157.06
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
1.23%	8.84%	7.52%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist