Stocks indecisive
Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for
today on this blog.
Stocks
The SPY and Industrials closed
down. The transports closed up. Nothing relevant under the Dow Theory.
Today’s volume was lower than Friday’s.
Since stocks closed down, contracting volume has a bullish connotation. For the
reasons I gave here,
I’d say that volume is turning bullish. We have had four consecutive bullish
volume days, and the last breakup of 08/01 was a bullish pivot, as was
explained here.
Gold and Silver
SLV and GLD gapped up and closed
up. SLV bettered its 07/23 closing highs. GLD, in spite of its closing up,
refused to confirm.
The primary trend is bearish,
as explained here
and reconfirmed bearish here.
The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish
trend), as explained here.
SIL and GDX, the gold and
silver miners ETFs, closed up. SIL neatly broke up the 07/23 secondary reaction
closing highs. However, GDX refused to confirm. Had GDX broken up its
07/23 highs, a primary bull market would have been signaled. Thus, the failure
of GDX to confirm SLV’s higher highs prevents me from qualifying the primary
trend as bullish. According to the Dow Theory such a breakup unconfirmed is
more often than not deceptive. Furthermore, the longer the non-confirmation persists,
the more suspect the ongoing bullish secondary trend will be.
Here you have an updated
chart.
Gold and Silver miners close to signaling primary bull market signal |
The secondary trend for GDX
and SIL is bullish, as explained here.
Here you have the figures for
the SPY, which represents the only market with a suggested open long position.
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
SPY | |||
Bull market started | 06/24/2013 | 157.06 | |
Bull market signaled | 07/18/2013 | 168.87 | |
Last close | 08/12/2013 | 169.11 | |
Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 157.06 | ||
Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
0.14% | 7.67% | 7.52% |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
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