Dow Theory Update for August 20: No changes in trends

Gold and silver miners ETFs consolidate gains.

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.

Stocks

The SPY, and Transports closed up. The Industrials closed down.

The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here.

The secondary is bearish, which implies an ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend, as explained here.

Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Since stocks closed mostly up, contracting volume has a bearish connotation, as higher prices were not confirmed by volume. For the reasons I gave here, I’d say that volume is bullish. Furthermore, the last breakup of 08/01 was a bullish pivot, as was explained here.

Here you have an updated chart:

In spite of the current pullback, the volume tends to be bullish

 

Gold and Silver

SLV closed down, and GLD closed up. For the reasons I explained here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

GDX and SIL closed up, and, unlike GLD and SLV, are unambiguously in a primary bull market under the Dow Theory, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bullish as well.

Here you have the figures for the SPY, GDX and SIL which represents the only markets with suggested open long positions.

 

DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		06/24/2013	157.06
Bull market signaled		07/18/2013	168.87
Last close		08/20/2013	165.58
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			157.06
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-1.95%	5.42%	7.52%

 

DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		06/26/2013	10.59
Bull market signaled		08/14/2013	15.36
Last close		08/20/2013	15.78
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low		06/26/2013	10.59
Unrealized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
2.73%	49.01%	45.04%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		06/26/2013	22.22
Bull market signaled		08/14/2013	28.7
Last close		08/20/2013	30.33
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low		06/26/2013	22.22
Unrealized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
5.68%	36.50%	29.16%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist