Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Dow Theory Update for August 7: Stocks closed down. Trends unchanged



 GLD and SLV close modestly positive


Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.

Stocks

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down.

The primary and secondary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here.

Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Since stocks closed down, expanding volume has a bullish connotation. Volume seems to suggest some degree of short term bearishness.

Gold and Silver

SLV and GLD closed up. The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

I am closely monitoring SLV and GLD’s pullback. Until now such pullback doesn’t qualify for a primary bull market signal setup. Either SLV or GLD (or both) should further extend their decline. Until now SLV and GLD have declined slightly more than 4% from their secondary reaction highs. This is not enough given current volatility readings.

SIL closed up, and GDX closed down.

The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here.

The secondary trend for GDX and SIL is bullish, as explained here.

Here you have the figures for the SPY, which represents the only market with a suggested open long position.


Data for August 7, 2013






DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bull market started
06/24/2013 157.06
Bull market signaled
07/18/2013 168.87
Last close
08/07/2013 169.18
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

157.06




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




0.18% 7.72% 7.52%



Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist

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