Dow Theory Update: Stocks fail to make higher highs

Gold and silver down.

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary in this blog.

Stocks

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down. The higher high made by the SPY two and three days ago, remain unconfirmed, which suggests weakness and increases the odds for a secondary reaction, unless either the SPY or the Industrials make higher highs soon.

The chart below shows the highest high recently made (red horizontal lines) and the failure of both the Industrials and Transports to break above such highs. 

SPY (bottom of the chart) made higher highs unconfirmed by the Industrials (top) and Transports (middle)

 

The primary and secondary trend remains bullish.

Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Since it was a down day, this has a bullish connotation, as declining prices were not joined by volume.

Gold and silver

Guess! GLD lost inventory once again…is it being drained into extinction?

GLD and SLV closed down. The primary trend is bearish, and the secondary trend is bullish. If this pullback persists further, we could get the set up for a primary bull market signal. To this end, gold or silver should decline ca. 3% and 6% respectively.

As to the gold and silver miners ETFs, GDX and SIL, both closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

 

Data for May 1, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135.7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146.06
Last close		05/01/2013	158.28
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			135.7
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
8.37%	16.64%	7.63%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162.6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.39%	7.83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29.95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.28%	13.15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/15/2012	21.87
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0.64%	26.99%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low		12/05/2012	45.35
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-6.72%	12.64%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist