Dow Theory Update for Dec 31: Stocks setting up for a primary bull market signal

 Precious metals up

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today in this blog.

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The primary trend remains bearish and the secondary trend bullish.

It is noteworthy to highlight that a set up for a primary bull market signal was completed last Friday, December 28.

Thus, both the SPY and Industrials experienced on Dec 28 a pullback exceeding 3% from their 12/18/2012 highs (Industrials: 13350.96; SPY: 145.37). Such a pullback (even if unconfirmed) sets stocks up for a primary bull market signal if the 12/18/2012 highs are bettered.

In the meantime, we just have to wait.

Today’s volume was larger than Fridays, which has a bullish implication. The overall pattern of volume remains bearish.

Gold and silver closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

GDX and SIL closed up. The primary trend remains bullish and the secondary trend bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today.

 

Data for December 31, 2012
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bear market started		09/14/2012	147,24
Bear market signaled		11/16/2012	136,37
Last close		12/31/2012	142,41
Current stop level: Bull market high			147,24
Price chg since bear mkt signaled	Tot decline since start bear mkt	Max Pot Loss %
4,43%	-3,28%	-7,38%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149,46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160,54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161,16
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162,6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0,39%	7,83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25,63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28,92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29,95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0,28%	13,15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17,08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21,83
Last close		12/31/2012	22,64
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			17,08
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
3,71%	32,55%	27,81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39,56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47,77
Last close		12/31/2012	46,39
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			39,56
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-2,89%	17,26%	20,75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theory