Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Dow Theory Update for Dec 19: Bearish parade



 

No change in trends.

 

Since there are no changes in trends, today it is going to be a short post in this Dow Theory blog. Furthermore, I hope to post later this evening a more important post concerning the BLV/GLD ratio (long-term bond/gold).

The SPY and the Industrials closed down today. The Transports closed up again.

Since neither the SPY nor the Industrials have bettered the vital 09/14/2012 (SPY) and 10/05/2012 (Industrials) highs, the primary trend remains bearish while the secondary trend bullish.

Volume today was lower than yesterday’s. Given that it was a down day, it has a bullish connotation. The last three days have witnessed bullish volume, and overall I’d label volume as neutral (don’t forget that until recently, we had many volume bearish days).

GLD (gold) and SLV (silver) closed down, again, today. Silver by refusing to violate its Nov 2 secondary reaction lows, once again has saved the day, and a primary bear market signal has been averted. For how long? We don’t know.

SIL and GDX closed down today. However, there is no change in trends. The primary trend is bullish whilst the secondary trend bearish.

Below you can see today’s figures of the markets I monitor.

 
Data for December 19, 2012





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bear market started
09/14/2012 147.24
Bear market signaled
11/16/2012 136.37
Last close
12/19/2012 144.29
Current stop level: Bull market high

147.24




Price chg since bear mkt signaled Tot decline since start bear mkt Max Pot Loss %




5.81% -2.00% -7.38%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149.46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160.54
Last close
12/19/2012 161.69
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 162.6




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Min Pot Gain %




0.72% 8.18% 1.28%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25.63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28.92
Last close
12/19/2012 30.11
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 29.95




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Min Pot Gain %




4.11% 17.48% 3.56%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17.08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21.83
Last close
12/19/2012 22.5
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

17.08




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




3.07% 31.73% 27.81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39.56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47.77
Last close
12/19/2012 45.36
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

39.56




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-5.05% 14.66% 20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist

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