Dow Theory Update for Dec 28: Bearish parade

 Stocks and precious metals closed down

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary in this blog.

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down once again. The primary trend is bearish, and the secondary trend is bullish.

Volume was lower than yesterday’s. Since it was a down day, it has a bullish connotation. However, at least for the short term (i.e. two weeks) the overall pattern of volume is bearish.

Gold and silver closed down. Prices are consolidating around the Dec 20 lows. Given that the primary trend is bearish, the most likely outcome is a new leg down. Time will tell. In the meantime, the primary and secondary trend are bearish.

SIL and GDX closed down today. The primary trend remains bullish (albeit in its death throes) and the secondary trend bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

Data for December 28, 2012
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bear market started		09/14/2012	147,24
Bear market signaled		11/16/2012	136,37
Last close		12/28/2012	140,03
Current stop level: Bull market high			147,24
Price chg since bear mkt signaled	Tot decline since start bear mkt	Max Pot Loss %
2,68%	-4,90%	-7,38%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149,46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160,54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161,16
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162,6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0,39%	7,83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25,63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28,92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29,95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0,28%	13,15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17,08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21,83
Last close		12/28/2012	22,04
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			17,08
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
0,96%	29,04%	27,81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39,56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47,77
Last close		12/28/2012	44,93
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			39,56
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-5,95%	13,57%	20,75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist