Dow Theory Update for Dec 10: No change of trends under the Dow Theory

Mildly bullish day

Before I start with our Dow Theory commentary, you may be may be interested in reading my post in this blog entitled “Don’t fall in love with your stocks! Love is always dangerous” which you can find here.

 

Today was a mildly bullish day. The SPY barely nudged up. The Industrials and Transports closed up. Under Dow Theory, nothing has changed. The primary trend remains bearish and the secondary trend bullish.

Volume was lower than Friday’s. Since it was an “up” day, we conclude volume, once again, has been bearish. Furthermore, you can see in the volume chart below that the latest rally (blue trend line) has been negated by a trend line of declining volume (red line). This is the second time such a pattern is repeated in the last few weeks. Not a very bullish sign, indeed.

Two last minor rallies have been negated by volume action

Gold and silver closed up. The primary trend remains bullish, and the ongoing secondary reaction keeps running its course.

The gold and silver miners ETFs closed also up today. The primary trend remains bullish and the secondary trend bearish. No changes in trends either.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

Data for December 10, 2012
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bear market started		09/14/2012	147,24
Bear market signaled		11/16/2012	136,37
Last close		12/10/2012	142,47
Current stop level: Bull market high			147,24
Price chg since bear mkt signaled	Tot decline since start bear mkt	Max Pot Loss %
4,47%	-3,24%	-7,38%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149,46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160,54
Last close		12/10/2012	165,8
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162,6
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Min Pot Gain %
3,28%	10,93%	1,28%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25,63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28,92
Last close		12/10/2012	32,14
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29,95
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Min Pot Gain %
11,13%	25,40%	3,56%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17,08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21,83
Last close		12/10/2012	22,85
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			17,08
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
4,67%	33,78%	27,81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39,56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47,77
Last close		12/10/2012	46,52
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			39,56
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-2,62%	17,59%	20,75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist