Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Dow Theory Update for Dec 4: Stocks down. No changes in trends



Gold and silver down.
 

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today in this blog.

The SPY and Industrials closed down today. The Transports closed up. Technically, nothing has been accomplished. The primary trend remains bearish, and the secondary trend remains bullish.

Volume was higher than yesterday’s, since the SPY closed down, I consider it a down day and hence lower prices confirmed by higher volume have a bearish connotation; again. As you can see in the chart below the red arrows dominate. 

Volume continues bearish. Red bearish arrows dominate


Gold and silver closed down today. It is good to remember that now is the moment of truth for gold and silver. If they violate their 11/02/2012 secondary reaction lows, a new primary bear market will be signaled, if, conversely, they break their 10/04/2012 highs, the primary bear market will be reconfirmed and the secondary trend will be declared as bullish. In the meantime, we have to wait. Here you have an updated chart. The red lines may not be violated or else….The pink lines merely reflect the entry price and, thus, the distance between both lines is the profit that is likely to be locked in.

If the red line is violated a new primary bear market will be signaled for gold and silver


SIL and GDX closed up today. No technical changes. The primary trend remains up. The secondary trend remains bearish.

Later, today, I’ll post a special issue in this Dow Theory blog concerning the new bullish secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend in stocks.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

 

Data for December 4, 2012





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bear market started
09/14/2012 147,24
Bear market signaled
11/16/2012 136,37
Last close
12/04/2012 138,75
Current stop level: Bull market high

147,24




Price chg since bear mkt signaled Tot decline since start bear mkt Max Pot Loss %




1,75% -5,77% -7,38%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149,46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160,54
Last close
12/04/2012 164,42
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 162,6




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Min Pot Gain %




2,42% 10,01% 1,28%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25,63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28,92
Last close
12/04/2012 31,9
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 29,95




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Min Pot Gain %




10,30% 24,46% 3,56%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17,08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21,83
Last close
12/04/2012 22,64
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

17,08




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




3,71% 32,55% 27,81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39,56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47,77
Last close
12/04/2012 46,65
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

39,56




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-2,34% 17,92% 20,75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist

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