Dow Theory Update for Dec 4: Stocks down. No changes in trends

Gold and silver down.

 

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today in this blog.

The SPY and Industrials closed down today. The Transports closed up. Technically, nothing has been accomplished. The primary trend remains bearish, and the secondary trend remains bullish.

Volume was higher than yesterday’s, since the SPY closed down, I consider it a down day and hence lower prices confirmed by higher volume have a bearish connotation; again. As you can see in the chart below the red arrows dominate. 

Volume continues bearish. Red bearish arrows dominate

Gold and silver closed down today. It is good to remember that now is the moment of truth for gold and silver. If they violate their 11/02/2012 secondary reaction lows, a new primary bear market will be signaled, if, conversely, they break their 10/04/2012 highs, the primary bear market will be reconfirmed and the secondary trend will be declared as bullish. In the meantime, we have to wait. Here you have an updated chart. The red lines may not be violated or else….The pink lines merely reflect the entry price and, thus, the distance between both lines is the profit that is likely to be locked in.

If the red line is violated a new primary bear market will be signaled for gold and silver

SIL and GDX closed up today. No technical changes. The primary trend remains up. The secondary trend remains bearish.

Later, today, I’ll post a special issue in this Dow Theory blog concerning the new bullish secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend in stocks.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

 

Data for December 4, 2012
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bear market started		09/14/2012	147,24
Bear market signaled		11/16/2012	136,37
Last close		12/04/2012	138,75
Current stop level: Bull market high			147,24
Price chg since bear mkt signaled	Tot decline since start bear mkt	Max Pot Loss %
1,75%	-5,77%	-7,38%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149,46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160,54
Last close		12/04/2012	164,42
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162,6
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Min Pot Gain %
2,42%	10,01%	1,28%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25,63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28,92
Last close		12/04/2012	31,9
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29,95
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Min Pot Gain %
10,30%	24,46%	3,56%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17,08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21,83
Last close		12/04/2012	22,64
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			17,08
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
3,71%	32,55%	27,81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39,56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47,77
Last close		12/04/2012	46,65
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			39,56
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-2,34%	17,92%	20,75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist