Dow Theory Update for Dec 26: Stocks down again

Precious metals inconclusive

Let’s see how the markets fared under the Dow Theory

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down today. Neither the Industrials nor the SPY have confirmed the breakout made by the Transports on December 21. The longer the non confirmation persists, the higher the odds for a reversal of the last witnessed rally.

The primary trend remains bearish and the secondary trend bullish.

Volume was higher today. Since it was a clear down day, it has a bearish implication. If we take into account the monster bearish day of December 21 plus today’s bearish volume, I’d tend to say that the overall pattern of volume is bearish.

Gold (GLD) closed down. Silver (SLV) closed up. The primary trend and secondary trend remain bearish.

SIL and GDX closed mildly up. The primary trend remains bullish, and the secondary trend remains bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today.

 

Data for December 26, 2012
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bear market started		09/14/2012	147,24
Bear market signaled		11/16/2012	136,37
Last close		12/26/2012	141,75
Current stop level: Bull market high			147,24
Price chg since bear mkt signaled	Tot decline since start bear mkt	Max Pot Loss %
3,95%	-3,73%	-7,38%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149,46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160,54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	159,73
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162,6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
-0,50%	6,87%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25,63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28,92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29,95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0,28%	13,15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17,08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21,83
Last close		12/26/2012	22,3
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			17,08
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
2,15%	30,56%	27,81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39,56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47,77
Last close		12/26/2012	45,15
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			39,56
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-5,48%	14,13%	20,75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist