Dow Theory Update for Dec 13: QE sputtering out

 Stocks and precious metals down

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary in this blog.

The SPY and the Industrials closed down. The Transports closed up. The primary trend remains bearish and the secondary bullish.

Volume was down today. Since stocks closed down today, it has a bullish connotation, as the decline was not confirmed by volume which retreated. The pattern of volume, though, remains bearish.

 Gold and silver closed down today. We keep our eyes fixated on the Nov 2 lows. If such lows are violated, a primary bear market would be signaled by the Dow Theory. Until this happens (if at all), the primary trend of the market remains bullish. The secondary trend is bearish.

GDX and SIL (the gold and silver miners ETF) closed down today. The primary trend remains bullish and the secondary trend bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today.

 

Data for December 13, 2012
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bear market started		09/14/2012	147,24
Bear market signaled		11/16/2012	136,37
Last close		12/13/2012	142,63
Current stop level: Bull market high			147,24
Price chg since bear mkt signaled	Tot decline since start bear mkt	Max Pot Loss %
4,59%	-3,13%	-7,38%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149,46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160,54
Last close		12/13/2012	164,37
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162,6
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Min Pot Gain %
2,39%	9,98%	1,28%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25,63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28,92
Last close		12/13/2012	31,53
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29,95
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Min Pot Gain %
9,02%	23,02%	3,56%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17,08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21,83
Last close		12/13/2012	22,97
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			17,08
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
5,22%	34,48%	27,81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39,56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47,77
Last close		12/13/2012	46,34
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			39,56
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-2,99%	17,14%	20,75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist