Thursday, December 13, 2012

Dow Theory Update for Dec 13: QE sputtering out




 Stocks and precious metals down


Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary in this blog.

The SPY and the Industrials closed down. The Transports closed up. The primary trend remains bearish and the secondary bullish.

Volume was down today. Since stocks closed down today, it has a bullish connotation, as the decline was not confirmed by volume which retreated. The pattern of volume, though, remains bearish.

 Gold and silver closed down today. We keep our eyes fixated on the Nov 2 lows. If such lows are violated, a primary bear market would be signaled by the Dow Theory. Until this happens (if at all), the primary trend of the market remains bullish. The secondary trend is bearish.

GDX and SIL (the gold and silver miners ETF) closed down today. The primary trend remains bullish and the secondary trend bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today.
 

Data for December 13, 2012





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bear market started
09/14/2012 147,24
Bear market signaled
11/16/2012 136,37
Last close
12/13/2012 142,63
Current stop level: Bull market high

147,24




Price chg since bear mkt signaled Tot decline since start bear mkt Max Pot Loss %




4,59% -3,13% -7,38%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149,46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160,54
Last close
12/13/2012 164,37
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 162,6




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Min Pot Gain %




2,39% 9,98% 1,28%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25,63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28,92
Last close
12/13/2012 31,53
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 29,95




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Min Pot Gain %




9,02% 23,02% 3,56%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17,08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21,83
Last close
12/13/2012 22,97
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

17,08




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




5,22% 34,48% 27,81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39,56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47,77
Last close
12/13/2012 46,34
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

39,56




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-2,99% 17,14% 20,75%


Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist

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