Monday, January 7, 2013

Dow Theory Update for Jan 7: Weakness prevails




Stocks and precious metals down


 


Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down. The primary trend and secondary trend remain bullish. More about the primary trend bull market signal here and here
 
Volume was down today, since it was a down day, the downward price action was not supported by volume, hence making it a bullish day. Furthermore, we see that the last rally of the lows was supported by volume (volume expanding with price) whereas volume is contracting during the incipient consolidations we are currently seeing. I'd label this action as bullish. Here you have an update snapshot of the volume patterns. Red arrows denote a bearish volume day whereas blue arrows denote bullish volume days.

Volume slightly bullish short term

Gold and silver closed down today. They are close to the primary bear market lows. We should remember that as per the Dow Theory, the primary trend is bearish so declining prices are more likely in the near term. More about the primary bear market signal in gold and silver here


SIL and GDX (the gold and silver miners ETF) closed down today. The primary trend remains bullish, and the secondary trend remains bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

 
Data for January 7, 2013





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bull market started
11/15/2012 135.7
Bull market signaled
01/02/2013 146.06
Last close
01/07/2013 145.97
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

135.7




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-0.06% 7.57% 7.63%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149.46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160.54
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 162.6




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.39% 7.83%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25.63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28.92
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 29
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 29.95




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.28% 13.15%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17.08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21.83
Last close
01/07/2013 22.19
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

17.08




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




1.65% 29.92% 27.81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39.56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47.77
Last close
01/07/2013 44.48
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

39.56




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-6.89% 12.44% 20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist

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