Gold refuses to confirm silver.
Let’s get started with today’s
post in this Dow Theory blog.
The SPY, the Industrials and
the Transports closed up. The Industrials and the Transports have jointly
bettered yesterday’s highs which, since yesterday’s action also entailed new
confirmed highs, is bullish. The primary trend and secondary trend
for stocks remains bullish.
Volume today was higher than
yesterday’s. Since it was an up day, it has a bullish implication. The daily
pattern of volume is now turning unambiguously bullish. Furthermore, volume at
pivots is bullish as I explained here.
Therefore, the overall pattern
of volume is bullish short term (i.e. 2-4 weeks).
So we have one of those rare
instances where all the elements of technical action are bullish. The primary
trend is bullish, so is the secondary trend, and volume is clearly supporting
the bullish trend. Here you have the latest volume chart:
 |
| Volume persistently bullish |
While being such technical
action bullish, my experience tells me that so much technical bullishness tends
to beget a short term reversal. However, after such
reversals, the inherent bullishness embedded in the market reasserts itself with
further advances.
In any instance, this is not a
market to short, all the doom and gloom notwithstanding.
I am preparing a new “saga” of
posts concerning vital statistics concerning the Dow Theory that every investor
should know. Readers of this Dow Theory blog stay tuned. Have you ever wondered
how many years the Dow Theory outperforms buy and hold? Have you ever wondered
what is the average return of the Dow Theory when the going gets tough (secular
bear markets) versus buy and hold? Have you ever wondered what was the deepest
draw down experienced by followers of the Dow Theory? When does the Dow Theory
shine? All these questions will be little by little answered in dedicated
posts.
Gold and silver closed up
today. Silver (SLV) for a second consecutive day, closed above its 01/02/2013
closing high. Gold, once again, failed to confirm and, in spite of closing up,
refused to exceed the 01/02/2013 close. The longer it takes for gold to confirm
silver action, the more dubious the inception of a new decent rally. Here you
have an updated chart reflecting recent gold and silver action:
 |
| Gold and silver remain bearish under Dow Theory. Gold refuses to confirm the timid advance made by silver |
The primary and secondary
trend for GLD and SLV remains bearish.
SIL and GDX closed up today. The
primary trend remains bullish, and the secondary trend remains bearish.
Here you have the figures of
the markets I monitor for today:
| Data for January 15, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.06 | |
| Last close | 01/15/2013 | 147.07 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 135.7 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 0.69% | 8.38% | 7.63% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Last close | 01/15/2013 | 22.42 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 17.08 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 2.70% | 31.26% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Last close | 01/15/2013 | 45.57 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 39.56 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -4.61% | 15.19% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist.
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