Dow Theory update for Jan 3: Gold and silver fell out of bed

Stocks mildly down.

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.

It is good to remember that yesterday a primary bull market was signaled by the Dow Theory. You can find the details about such a primary bull market here.

Tomorrow or next Saturday, I plan to post a Dow Theory special issue in this blog concerning the primary bull market signal. In this future post, I will deal with issues of interest to investors such as the likely risk/reward of the new position, where to place the Dow Theory stops, etc. So readers of this Dow Theory blog stay tuned.

The SPY and Industrials closed down. The Transports closed up. The primary and secondary trend is bullish.

Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Given that it was an overall bearish day, it was a bullish implication as the downward action was not confirmed by expanding volume.

Gold and silver closed strongly down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

SIL and GDX (the silver and gold miners ETF) closed strongly down. The primary trend remains bullish and the secondary trend bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

Data for January 3, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135,7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146,06
Last close		01/03/2013	145,73
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			135,7
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0,23%	7,39%	7,63%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149,46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160,54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161,16
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162,6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0,39%	7,83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25,63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28,92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29,95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0,28%	13,15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17,08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21,83
Last close		01/03/2013	22,7
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			17,08
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
3,99%	32,90%	27,81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39,56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47,77
Last close		01/03/2013	45,14
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			39,56
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-5,51%	14,11%	20,75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist.