Thursday, January 3, 2013

Dow Theory update for Jan 3: Gold and silver fell out of bed





Stocks mildly down.


Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.

It is good to remember that yesterday a primary bull market was signaled by the Dow Theory. You can find the details about such a primary bull market here.


Tomorrow or next Saturday, I plan to post a Dow Theory special issue in this blog concerning the primary bull market signal. In this future post, I will deal with issues of interest to investors such as the likely risk/reward of the new position, where to place the Dow Theory stops, etc. So readers of this Dow Theory blog stay tuned.

The SPY and Industrials closed down. The Transports closed up. The primary and secondary trend is bullish.

Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Given that it was an overall bearish day, it was a bullish implication as the downward action was not confirmed by expanding volume.

Gold and silver closed strongly down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

SIL and GDX (the silver and gold miners ETF) closed strongly down. The primary trend remains bullish and the secondary trend bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:


Data for January 3, 2013





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY



SPY
Bull market started
11/15/2012 135,7
Bull market signaled
01/02/2013 146,06
Last close
01/03/2013 145,73
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

135,7




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-0,23% 7,39% 7,63%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149,46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160,54
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 161,16
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 162,6




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0,39% 7,83%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25,63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28,92
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 29
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 29,95




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0,28% 13,15%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17,08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21,83
Last close
01/03/2013 22,7
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

17,08




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




3,99% 32,90% 27,81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39,56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47,77
Last close
01/03/2013 45,14
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

39,56




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-5,51% 14,11% 20,75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist.

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