Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Dow Theory Update for Jan 29: Precious metals decline arrested?




 Stocks losing momentum


Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.

The SPY and Industrials closed up, thereby making higher highs. The Transports slightly down. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish.

Volume was higher than yesterday’s. Since it was an “up” day, volume supported advancing prices, which is bullish.

Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) closed up. Is the meltdown being arrested? Keep an eye on long-term bonds and their relative strength with gold (look at the chart below). Today the ratio has turned bearish, which denotes stronger gold and weaker bonds.  In the coming days, I will write an update about the vital BLV/GLD ratio.

The BLV/GLD ratio is turning bearish. Is bond's weakness to slow down gold's decline? Or will higher interests extend the current primary bear market in gold?
 

The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

As to SIL and GDX, they closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today. Please observe that I am only updating the figures for the SPY, since I assume that no positions exist currently for GLD, SLV, GDX and SIL given their present bearish primary trends.

 

Data for January 29, 2013





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bull market started
11/15/2012 135.7
Bull market signaled
01/02/2013 146.06
Last close
01/29/2013 150.66
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

135.7




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




3.15% 11.02% 7.63%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149.46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160.54
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 162.6




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.39% 7.83%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25.63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28.92
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 29
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 29.95




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.28% 13.15%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17.08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21.83
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/15/2012 21.87




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





-0.64% 26.99%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39.56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47.77
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low
12/05/2012 45.35




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





-6.72% 12.64%



Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist

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