Dow Theory Update for Jan 29: Precious metals decline arrested?

 Stocks losing momentum

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.

The SPY and Industrials closed up, thereby making higher highs. The Transports slightly down. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish.

Volume was higher than yesterday’s. Since it was an “up” day, volume supported advancing prices, which is bullish.

Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) closed up. Is the meltdown being arrested? Keep an eye on long-term bonds and their relative strength with gold (look at the chart below). Today the ratio has turned bearish, which denotes stronger gold and weaker bonds.  In the coming days, I will write an update about the vital BLV/GLD ratio.

The BLV/GLD ratio is turning bearish. Is bond's weakness to slow down gold's decline? Or will higher interests extend the current primary bear market in gold?

 

The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

As to SIL and GDX, they closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today. Please observe that I am only updating the figures for the SPY, since I assume that no positions exist currently for GLD, SLV, GDX and SIL given their present bearish primary trends.

 

Data for January 29, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135.7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146.06
Last close		01/29/2013	150.66
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			135.7
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
3.15%	11.02%	7.63%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162.6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.39%	7.83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29.95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.28%	13.15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/15/2012	21.87
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
-0.64%	26.99%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low		12/05/2012	45.35
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
-6.72%	12.64%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist