Dow Theory Update for Jan 8: Gold and silver up

 Stocks down.

Let’s see what the Dow Theory has in store for us today.

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down in unison today. The primary and secondary trend is bullish.

Volume today was higher than yesterday’s. Since it was a down day it has a bearish implication.

Gold and silver closed up. As per Dow Theory, I see very mildly bullish action in the charts. On 01/07/2013 GLD made a lower low by violating the 12/20/2012 lows. However, SLV refused to do so and hence did not confirm the lower lows. Of course, two days of non confirmation is not enough to make us bullish. However, if this non confirmation persists and, at the very least the 01/02/2013 highs would be jointly bettered by gold and silver, then I would be slightly less bearish. Nonetheless, such action wouldn’t even turn the secondary trend bullish as the mini rally staged from the 12/20/2012 lows to the 01/02/2013 highs didn’t even qualify as a Dow Theory rally, as the upward movement didn’t reach 3% for GLD or its volatility-adjusted equivalent for silver. Thus, technically, the primary trend and the secondary trend remain bearish. Here you have an updated chart concerning gold and silver action. As you can see all recent price action is occurring below the red lines (which defined the onset of the primary bear market). This is not a very bullish sign.

Bearish picture for GLD and SLV. The primary bear market is fully in force

SIL closed down, and GDX closed up. The primary trend remains bullish, and the secondary trend remains bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

 

Data for January 8, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135.7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146.06
Last close		01/08/2013	145.55
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			135.7
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0.35%	7.26%	7.63%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162.6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.39%	7.83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29.95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.28%	13.15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Last close		01/08/2013	22.06
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			17.08
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
1.05%	29.16%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Last close		01/08/2013	44.65
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			39.56
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-6.53%	12.87%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist