Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Dow Theory Update for Jan 8: Gold and silver up




 Stocks down.


Let’s see what the Dow Theory has in store for us today.

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down in unison today. The primary and secondary trend is bullish.

Volume today was higher than yesterday’s. Since it was a down day it has a bearish implication.

Gold and silver closed up. As per Dow Theory, I see very mildly bullish action in the charts. On 01/07/2013 GLD made a lower low by violating the 12/20/2012 lows. However, SLV refused to do so and hence did not confirm the lower lows. Of course, two days of non confirmation is not enough to make us bullish. However, if this non confirmation persists and, at the very least the 01/02/2013 highs would be jointly bettered by gold and silver, then I would be slightly less bearish. Nonetheless, such action wouldn’t even turn the secondary trend bullish as the mini rally staged from the 12/20/2012 lows to the 01/02/2013 highs didn’t even qualify as a Dow Theory rally, as the upward movement didn’t reach 3% for GLD or its volatility-adjusted equivalent for silver. Thus, technically, the primary trend and the secondary trend remain bearish. Here you have an updated chart concerning gold and silver action. As you can see all recent price action is occurring below the red lines (which defined the onset of the primary bear market). This is not a very bullish sign.

Bearish picture for GLD and SLV. The primary bear market is fully in force

SIL closed down, and GDX closed up. The primary trend remains bullish, and the secondary trend remains bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:


 

Data for January 8, 2013





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bull market started
11/15/2012 135.7
Bull market signaled
01/02/2013 146.06
Last close
01/08/2013 145.55
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

135.7




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-0.35% 7.26% 7.63%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149.46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160.54
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 162.6




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.39% 7.83%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25.63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28.92
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 29
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 29.95




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.28% 13.15%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17.08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21.83
Last close
01/08/2013 22.06
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

17.08




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




1.05% 29.16% 27.81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39.56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47.77
Last close
01/08/2013 44.65
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

39.56




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-6.53% 12.87% 20.75%


Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist

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