Dow Theory Update for Jan 22: Another bullish day

Precious metals and stocks close up.

 Recently, Richard Russell, author of the famed “Dow Theory Letters," with almost 60 years of experience on his back stated:

“Despite a steady parade of fear stories and scary newspaper headlines, the markets plow steadily and fearlessly ahead. I can't explain it, nor do I want to, but ultimately, I will depend on my charts to tell me what's really going on.”

I couldn’t say it better. This is the mind of a Dow Theorist, of a technical analyst speaking.

This is why I normally refuse to mix news, gossips and fundamentals with my daily analysis. The result is a less spicy, somewhat drier commentaries but an honest effort at determining the real trend of the markets.

Well let's turn our eyes to the stock market.

The SPY, Industrials and Transport closed up once again. As I wrote in my post “No time for excuses. Stocks market in primary bull market even under “classical” Dow Theory” which you can find here the trend of the market was declared bullish on January 18 according to the “classical/Rhea” Dow Theory flavor.

As to our own Dow Theory flavor, which closely follows Schannep’s, it signaled the existence of a primary bull market on January 2, 2013, which means an advantageously 1.55% lower entry price.

The primary and secondary trend are bullish.

Today’s volume was lower than Fridays, which makes it a bearish volume day as rocketing prices were not supported by volume. The overall pattern of volume remains bullish.

Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish. If GLD keep going up (i.e. by staging a rally off the lows exceeding 3%) we could label the secondary trend as bullish. However, this has not happened yet.

The gold and silver miners ETF closed up. The primary trend remains bullish and the secondary trend bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

 

Data for January 22, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135.7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146.1
Last close		01/22/2013	149.1
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			135.7
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
2.10%	9.90%	7.63%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.5
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.5
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161.2
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162.6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.39%	7.83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29.95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.28%	13.15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Last close		01/22/2013	22.06
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			17.08
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
1.05%	29.16%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Last close		01/22/2013	45.82
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			39.56
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-4.08%	15.82%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist