Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Dow Theory Update for Jan 22: Another bullish day




Precious metals and stocks close up.


 Recently, Richard Russell, author of the famed “Dow Theory Letters," with almost 60 years of experience on his back stated:


Despite a steady parade of fear stories and scary newspaper headlines, the markets plow steadily and fearlessly ahead. I can't explain it, nor do I want to, but ultimately, I will depend on my charts to tell me what's really going on.”

I couldn’t say it better. This is the mind of a Dow Theorist, of a technical analyst speaking.

This is why I normally refuse to mix news, gossips and fundamentals with my daily analysis. The result is a less spicy, somewhat drier commentaries but an honest effort at determining the real trend of the markets.

Well let's turn our eyes to the stock market.

The SPY, Industrials and Transport closed up once again. As I wrote in my post “No time for excuses. Stocks market in primary bull market even under “classical” Dow Theory” which you can find here the trend of the market was declared bullish on January 18 according to the “classical/Rhea” Dow Theory flavor.


As to our own Dow Theory flavor, which closely follows Schannep’s, it signaled the existence of a primary bull market on January 2, 2013, which means an advantageously 1.55% lower entry price.

The primary and secondary trend are bullish.

Today’s volume was lower than Fridays, which makes it a bearish volume day as rocketing prices were not supported by volume. The overall pattern of volume remains bullish.

Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish. If GLD keep going up (i.e. by staging a rally off the lows exceeding 3%) we could label the secondary trend as bullish. However, this has not happened yet.

The gold and silver miners ETF closed up. The primary trend remains bullish and the secondary trend bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

 

Data for January 22, 2013





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bull market started
11/15/2012 135.7
Bull market signaled
01/02/2013 146.1
Last close
01/22/2013 149.1
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

135.7




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




2.10% 9.90% 7.63%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149.5
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160.5
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 161.2
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 162.6




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.39% 7.83%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25.63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28.92
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 29
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 29.95




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.28% 13.15%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17.08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21.83
Last close
01/22/2013 22.06
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

17.08




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




1.05% 29.16% 27.81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39.56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47.77
Last close
01/22/2013 45.82
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

39.56




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-4.08% 15.82% 20.75%



Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist

No comments:

Post a Comment