Dow Theory Update for Jan 30: Stocks finally down. No changes in trends

 Something unpleasant may be happening to the USD and Bonds

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down today. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish.

Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Since it was a down day, it has a bullish connotation since lower prices were not supported by volume. The overall pattern of volume remains bullish.

Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) closed up. Yesterday I wrote that the BLV/GLD ratio was turning bearish. Today the ratio has fallen out of bed. See below an updated chart of the BLV/GLD ratio (the red line is the ratio, and the green horizontal line are the last secondary reaction lows of the ratio which were violated yesterday). When I find some free time (always in very short supply), I will write more about the implications of a falling ratio for gold, stocks, bonds themselves and the US dollar. In the meantime, you may get a glimpse of it by reading this post.

Bonds are turning bearish. Now turning weaker than an already weak gold

The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

SIL closed unchanged. GDX closed down. The miners look unable to rally even in the presence of falling bonds and rising gold.

The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today.

Data for January 30, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135.7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146.06
Last close		01/30/2013	150.07
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			135.7
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
2.75%	10.59%	7.63%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162.6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.39%	7.83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29.95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.28%	13.15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/15/2012	21.87
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
-0.64%	26.99%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low		12/05/2012	45.35
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
-6.72%	12.64%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist