And trends remain unchanged
US Stocks
The SPY, the Industrials and
the Transports closed up.
The secondary trend is also
bullish for the reasons explained here, even though if the current pullback
extends its decline it could turn soon bearish.
Today’s volume was lower than yesterday, which is
bearish, as higher prices were not joined by raising volume. The overall
pattern remains neutral.
Gold and Silver
SLV and GLD closed down. For
the reasons I explained here,
I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here
I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The
primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here.
The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish
trend), as explained here.
Here, I explained
that GLD and SLV set up for a primary bull market signal. However, a setup is
not the same as the “real thing," namely the primary bull market; thus,
many “setups” do not materialize and until the secondary reaction closing highs
are jointly broken up, no primary bull market will be signaled.
SIL and GDX closed down. SIL
and GDX, unlike GLD and SLV, are unambiguously in a primary bull market under
the Dow Theory, as explained here and here.
The secondary trend is
bearish, which is tantamount to saying that there is an ongoing secondary
reaction against the primary bullish trend, for the reasons given here.
Here you have the figures for the SPY, GDX and SIL
which represents the only markets with suggested open long positions.
Data for October 1, 2013 | |||
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
SPY | |||
Bull market started | 06/24/2013 | 157.06 | |
Bull market signaled | 07/18/2013 | 168.87 | |
Last close | 10/01/2013 | 169.34 | |
Current stop level: Secondary reaction low | 163.33 | ||
Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
0.28% | 7.82% | 3.39% |
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
SIL | |||
Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 15.36 | |
Last close | 10/01/2013 | 12.92 | |
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
-15.89% | 22.00% | 45.04% | |
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
GDX | |||
Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 28.7 | |
Last close | 10/01/2013 | 24.41 | |
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
-14.95% | 9.86% | 29.16% |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
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