Friday, October 4, 2013

Dow Theory Update for October 4: Stocks close up. Secondary reaction unchanged




Precious metals remain anemic


Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today on this blog.

US Stocks

The SPY, the Industrials and the Transports closed down.
 
The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here.

 The secondary trend was signaled as bearish yesterday, which amounts to a secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend. Here you can find the relevant chart and information concerning the entrails of the secondary reaction.

Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s, which is bearish, as higher prices were not met by expanding volume. I still see the overall pattern of volume as neutral, as I explained here.

Gold and Silver

SLV closed barely up, and GLD closed barely down. For the reasons I explained here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

Here, I explained that GLD and SLV set up for a primary bull market signal. However, a setup is not the same as the “real thing," namely the primary bull market; thus, many “setups” do not materialize and until the secondary reaction closing highs are jointly broken up, no primary bull market will be signaled.

SIL closed down, and GDX closed down. SIL and GDX, unlike GLD and SLV, are in a primary bull market under the Dow Theory, as explained here and here.

The secondary trend is bearish, which is tantamount to saying that there is an ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend, for the reasons given here.

Here you have the figures for the SPY, GDX and SIL which represents the only markets with suggested open long positions.


DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bull market started
06/24/2013 157.06
Bull market signaled
07/18/2013 168.87
Last close
10/04/2013 168.89
Current stop level: Secondary reaction low

163.33




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




0.01% 7.53% 3.39%

 

DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL




SIL
Bull market started
06/26/2013 10.59
Bull market signaled
08/14/2013 15.36
Last close
10/04/2013 12.64
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low
06/26/2013 10.59




Unrealized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-17.71% 19.36% 45.04%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX




GDX
Bull market started
06/26/2013 22.22
Bull market signaled
08/14/2013 28.7
Last close
10/04/2013 24.19
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low
06/26/2013 22.22




Unrealized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-15.71% 8.87% 29.16%


Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist

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