SPY and Transports make higher highs
US stocks
The SPY,
Industrials and Transports closed up. The SPY and Transports made higher highs.
The Industrials, in spite of closing higher, remain below the 09/18/2013 highs.
The primary
trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th, for the reasons given here.
Today’s
volume was higher than yesterday’s, which is bullish, as higher prices were met
by expanding volume. I consider volume to be bearish for the reasons given here and here.
Gold and
Silver
Today there were fireworks in the precious
metals arena.
SLV and GLD
closed up. For the reasons I explained here, and most
recently here, I feel the primary
trend remains bearish, all the recent strong action notwithstanding. Here I analyzed
the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend
was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The
secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish
trend), as explained here.
Here, I
explained that GLD and SLV set up for a primary bull market signal. However, a
setup is not the same as the “real thing," namely the primary bull market;
thus, many “setups” do not materialize and until the secondary reaction closing
highs are jointly broken up, no primary bull market will be signaled.
SIL and GDX
closed up. SIL and GDX, unlike GLD and SLV, are in a primary bull market under
the Dow Theory, as explained here and here.
The secondary
trend is bearish, which is tantamount to saying that there is an ongoing
secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend, for the reasons given here.
Here you have
the figures for the SPY, GDX and SIL which represents the only markets with
suggested open long positions.
Data for October 22, 2013 | |||
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
SPY | |||
Bull market started | 06/24/2013 | 157.06 | |
Bull market signaled | 07/18/2013 | 168.87 | |
Last close | 10/22/2013 | 175.41 | |
Current stop level: Secondary reaction low | 165.48 | ||
Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
3.87% | 11.68% | 2.05% |
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
SIL | |||
Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 15.36 | |
Last close | 10/22/2013 | 13.59 | |
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
-11.52% | 28.33% | 45.04% | |
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
GDX | |||
Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 28.7 | |
Last close | 10/22/2013 | 26.02 | |
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
-9.34% | 17.10% | 29.16% |
Sincerely,
The Dow
Theorist
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