Dow Theory Update for October 24: Transports make higher highs while lack of confirmation persists

Precious metals strong

Today’s been a dull day under the Dow Theory. No changes in trends at all. Nobody said that investing according to the Dow Theory had to be exciting. The point is to be profitable and to contain losses, not to have an excitement “shot” every day.

US stocks

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The Transports made a higher high unconfirmed. The Industrials remain below the 09/18/2013 highs. The longer the lack of confirmation persists, the higher the odds for a temporary reversal of the current bullish thrust.

The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here.

The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th, for the reasons given here.

Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s, which is bearish, as higher prices did not attract more volume. I consider volume to be bearish for the reasons given here and here.

Gold and Silver

SLV and GLD closed up. For the reasons I explained here, and more recently here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish, all the recent strong action notwithstanding. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

Here, I explained that GLD and SLV set up for a primary bull market signal. However, a setup is not the same as the “real thing," namely the primary bull market; thus, many “setups” do not materialize and until the secondary reaction closing highs are jointly broken up, no primary bull market will be signaled.

SIL and GDX closed up. SIL and GDX, unlike GLD and SLV, are in a primary bull market under the Dow Theory, as explained here and here.

The secondary trend is bearish, which is tantamount to saying that there is an ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend, for the reasons given here.

Here you have the figures for the SPY, GDX and SIL which represents the only markets with suggested open long positions.

Data for October 24, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		06/24/2013	157.06
Bull market signaled		07/18/2013	168.87
Last close		10/24/2013	175.15
Current stop level: Secondary reaction low			165.48
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
3.72%	11.52%	2.05%

 

DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		06/26/2013	10.59
Bull market signaled		08/14/2013	15.36
Last close		10/24/2013	13.67
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low		06/26/2013	10.59
Unrealized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-11.00%	29.08%	45.04%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		06/26/2013	22.22
Bull market signaled		08/14/2013	28.7
Last close		10/24/2013	26.13
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low		06/26/2013	22.22
Unrealized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-8.95%	17.60%	29.16%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist