Russell remains bullish on gold
Richard Russell of the “Dow Theory Letters” likes
recent gold action. Let’s hope he has called the bottom. In the meantime, while
I acknowledge that the secondary trend is bullish, under a strict Dow Theory
viewpoint, I don’t see a primary bull market yet.
US stocks
The SPY, and Industrials closed down. The Transports closed up making a
higher high unconfirmed. The Industrials remain below the 09/18/2013 highs. The
longer the lack of confirmation persists, the higher the odds for a temporary
reversal of the current bullish thrust.
The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th, for the
reasons given here.
Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s, which is bullish, as lower prices
did not attract more volume. I consider volume to be bearish for the reasons
given here and here.
Gold and Silver
SLV and GLD closed down. For the reasons I explained here,
and most recently here, I feel the
primary trend remains bearish, all the recent strong action notwithstanding.
Here
I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary
trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here.
The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary
bearish trend), as explained here.
Here, I explained that GLD and SLV set up for a
primary bull market signal. However, a setup is not the same as the “real
thing," namely the primary bull market; thus, many “setups” do not
materialize and until the secondary reaction closing highs are jointly broken
up, no primary bull market will be signaled.
SIL and GDX closed down. SIL and GDX, unlike GLD and SLV, are in a primary
bull market under the Dow Theory, as explained here and here.
The secondary trend is bearish, which is tantamount to saying that there is
an ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend, for the
reasons given here.
Here you have the figures for the SPY, GDX and SIL which represents the
only markets with suggested open long positions.
Data for October 23, 2013 | |||
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
SPY | |||
Bull market started | 06/24/2013 | 157.06 | |
Bull market signaled | 07/18/2013 | 168.87 | |
Last close | 10/23/2013 | 174.57 | |
Current stop level: Secondary reaction low | 165.48 | ||
Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
3.38% | 11.15% | 2.05% |
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
SIL | |||
Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 15.36 | |
Last close | 10/23/2013 | 13.14 | |
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
-14.45% | 24.08% | 45.04% | |
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
GDX | |||
Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 28.7 | |
Last close | 10/23/2013 | 25.18 | |
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
-12.26% | 13.32% | 29.16% |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
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