Dow Theory Update for March 25: Distribution days pile up

Precious metals: Still weak.

Let’s see what the Dow Theory has in store for us today.

Stocks

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down. While I believe that we are already under a secondary reaction, according to the Dow Theory it is too early to tell. We need at least a pullback exceeding 3% in two or more indices, and the pullback must last at least 10 trading days. Thus, the primary and secondary trend remains bullish.

Today’s volume was higher than last Friday’s, which is bearish as declining prices were joined by expanding volume. The overall patter of volume continues bearish and increases the likelihood for a secondary reaction to develop.

Gold and silver

GLD didn’t either win or lose inventory last Friday.

GLD closed down. SLV closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

GDX and SIL closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

 

Data for March 25, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135.7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146.06
Last close		03/25/2013	154.95
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			135.7
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
6.09%	14.19%	7.63%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162.6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.39%	7.83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29.95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.28%	13.15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/15/2012	21.87
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0.64%	26.99%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low		12/05/2012	45.35
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-6.72%	12.64%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist.