Friday, March 1, 2013

Dow Theory Update for March 1: New higher high by the Industrials, once again unconfirmed



Distribution days continue to pile up.


Let's get started with our Dow Theory commentary in this blog for today.

Special note on gold

GLD lost yesterday (Feb 28) a 3.91 tonnes of gold (0.947%). Thus, inventories have been declining for 8 days in a row. Accordingly, inventories have declined from 1322.97 tons to 1254.49 tonnes, that is 68.48 tonnes or 4.88%.

If my readings of the GLD inventory spreadsheet are correct never before was such an uninterrupted spell of “pukes."

I have written extensively about the bullishness of such an event (contrary to conventional wisdom), as you can find here and here.

Stocks

The SPY and Industrials closed up. The Transports closed down. The Industrials made a higher high bettering the highs made on February 27. However, such higher highs remain unconfirmed. Such lack of confirmations, together with our bearish volume readings, increase the odds for a secondary reaction. However, it is too early to tell.

Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Since the SPY, Nasdaq and Industrials closed up it was a bullish day. However, bullish action unconfirmed by expanding volume has a bearish connotation. That today was another bearish volume day. Thus, today we had the ninth bearish volume day in a row. Here you have an updated chart:

So many distribution days (red arrows) seem increases the odds for a reversal (secondary reaction)

 
Gold and silver.

SLV closed up. GLD closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

As to the miners ETFs, GDX and SIL, both closed down and made lower lows. Such confirmed lower lows confirm the primary bear market, and it is certainly not bullish. Here you have an updated chart depicting a clear bear market. 

A clear bear market in the mining stocks. Today, once again, the primary bear market has been re-confirmed


If I find enough time, I plan to post a new piece concerning the average duration and average gain of bull markets according to the classical Dow Theory. The conclusions arising from this future article are really valuable for any investor. This post is the result of some comments left by the New Low Observer (NLO) in my Seeking Alpha blog.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:


Data for March 1, 2013






DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bull market started
11/15/2012 135.7
Bull market signaled
01/02/2013 146.06
Last close
01/03/2013 152.11
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

135.7




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




4.14% 12.09% 7.63%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149.46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160.54
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 162.6




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.39% 7.83%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25.63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28.92
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 29
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/02/2012 29.95




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.28% 13.15%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17.08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21.83
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low
11/15/2012 21.87




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-0.64% 26.99% 27.81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39.56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47.77
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low
12/05/2012 45.35




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-6.72% 12.64% 20.75%





Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist.

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