Dow Theory Update for March 15: Stocks down on huge volume

 Gold and silver up

GLD inventory conundrum explained?

Richard Russell of the “Dow Theory Letters” has recently said that “China is looking at the gold ETFs as an opportunity to collect huge hoards of gold in one fell swoop. Beneath the quiet and dull action of gold, a fierce battle among the accumulators is going on”. Is China buying GLD shares and redeeming them in order to get the inventory, that is the gold bullion? It seems Russell thinks so.

By the way, yesterday GLD didn’t lose any inventory.

Stocks

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down. The primary and secondary trend is bullish according the the Dow Theory.

Today we had a monster volume day, which clearly exceeded yesterday’s. Since prices went down, it has a bearish connotation. Please look at the chart below, and you will see that today was a bearish volume reversal bar. Normally, such bars have follow-up, so the odds increase for lower prices ahead. Thus, volume remains bearish for the reasons I gave here.

Today's monster volume shows that selling pressure is rising

Gold and silver

GDX and SLV closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

GDX and SIL closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I follow for today:

 

Data for March 15, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135.7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146.1
Last close		03/15/2013	155.8
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			135.7
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
6.69%	14.83%	7.63%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.5
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.5
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161.2
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162.6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.39%	7.83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29.95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.28%	13.15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/15/2012	21.87
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0.64%	26.99%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low		12/05/2012	45.35
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-6.72%	12.64%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist