Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Dow Theory Update for March 20: Stocks mostly up



 All trends unchanged


GLD grew in tonnage yesterday.

At last, GLD gained inventory yesterday. Since February 7, 2013 GLD had not recorded one single day with inventory gains. Has the bleeding been arrested? Too soon to tell.

According to “The Reformed Broker” the odds favor a continuation of the current bull market in stocks

The Reformed Broker contains an interesting article concerning the duration of bull markets. Although the definition of “bull market” may not exactly coincide with the one given by the Dow Theory (of any “flavor” whatsoever), it is interesting to see that bull markets that made it to the four year tend to extend the advance into the fifth year. In other words, strength tends to beget strength and trends do exist.

By the way, similar conclusions are reached by Schannep in his book “The Dow Theory for the 21st Century”.

Stocks

The SPY and Industrials closed up. The Transports closed down. I see in the charts that neither index has managed to better the last recorded highs. If this situation persists, it will be hinting at the development of a secondary reaction.

Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Since globally it was an up day, it has a bearish connotation. The overall patter of volume remains bearish.

Gold and silver

GLD and SLV closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

As to the gold and silver miners ETFs, both GDX and SIL closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

If I manage to free up some time, I plan to post a new post (number IV) concerning Dow Theory performance in bull/bear markets. You can find the latest post here.


Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

 

Data for March 20, 2013





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY



SPY
Bull market started
11/15/2012 135.7
Bull market signaled
01/02/2013 146.06
Last close
03/20/2013 155.69
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

135.7




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




6.59% 14.73% 7.63%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149.46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160.54
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low 11/02/2012 162.6




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.39% 7.83%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25.63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28.92
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 29
Current stop level: Sec React low 11/02/2012 29.95




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.28% 13.15%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17.08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21.83
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low 11/15/2012 21.87




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-0.64% 26.99% 27.81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39.56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47.77
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low 12/05/2012 45.35




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-6.72% 12.64% 20.75%




Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist

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