Dow Theory Update for March 4: Transports confirm higher high of Industrials

 Gold and silver miners make new lows.

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.

Special issue concerning Dow Theory performance and duration of investments made according to the Dow Theory.

Last Saturday, March 2, I posted a new study concerning the average duration of the investments made according to the “classical/Rhea” Dow Theory and the kind of profits (and sometimes losses) we can expect from them. It is must-read for any investor with a real liking for the Dow Theory. Furthermore, this post will open a new sage of articles whereby I will further analyze the Dow Theory. Until now, my studies focused on the year-end performance (as you can find here and here). The new articles will dissect each particular signal. As far as I know no such study has been published elsewhere.

Special note on gold

GLD lost last Friday (March 1) 0.610 tonnes of gold (0.048%). Thus, inventories have been declining for nine days in a row. Accordingly, inventories have declined from 1322.97 tons to 1253.88 tonnes, that is 69.09 tonnes or 5.22%.

If my readings of the GLD inventory spreadsheet are correct never before was such an uninterrupted spell of “pukes."

Stocks

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The Industrials are very near to their all-time highs. Both the Transports and the Industrials have bettered their previous 02/19/2013 high, which confirms the primary trend as bullish. The primary and secondary trend of the markets is bullish.

Today’s volume was lower than Friday’s. Since it was an up day, it has a bearish connotation as higher prices were met by receding volume. Even though the Industrials and Transports made higher highs (which is bullish) the pattern of volume is bearish short term, as explained here, which suggests that a secondary reaction might develop soon.

Gold and silver

SLV and GLD closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

As to the miners ETFs, GDX and SIL closed down and made a lower low. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

 

Data for March 4, 2013
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY
			SPY
Bull market started		11/15/2012	135.7
Bull market signaled		01/02/2013	146.06
Last close		03/04/2013	152.92
Current stop level: Bear mkt low			135.7
Unrlzd gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
4.70%	12.69%	7.63%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)
			GLD
Bull market started		05/16/2012	149.46
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	160.54
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	162.6
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.39%	7.83%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)
			SLV
Bull market started		06/28/2012	25.63
Bull market signaled		08/22/2012	28.92
Exit December 20		12/20/2012	29
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/02/2012	29.95
Realized gain %	Tot advance since start bull mkt
0.28%	13.15%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL
			SIL
Bull market started		07/24/2012	17.08
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	21.83
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low		11/15/2012	21.87
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-0.64%	26.99%	27.81%
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX
			GDX
Bull market started		05/16/2012	39.56
Bull market signaled		09/04/2012	47.77
Exit January 23		01/24/2013	44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low		12/05/2012	45.35
Realized Loss %	Tot advance since start bull mkt	Max Pot Loss %
-6.72%	12.64%	20.75%

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist.