Monday, March 4, 2013

Dow Theory Update for March 4: Transports confirm higher high of Industrials




 Gold and silver miners make new lows.


Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.

Special issue concerning Dow Theory performance and duration of investments made according to the Dow Theory.

Last Saturday, March 2, I posted a new study concerning the average duration of the investments made according to the “classical/Rhea” Dow Theory and the kind of profits (and sometimes losses) we can expect from them. It is must-read for any investor with a real liking for the Dow Theory. Furthermore, this post will open a new sage of articles whereby I will further analyze the Dow Theory. Until now, my studies focused on the year-end performance (as you can find here and here). The new articles will dissect each particular signal. As far as I know no such study has been published elsewhere.

Special note on gold

GLD lost last Friday (March 1) 0.610 tonnes of gold (0.048%). Thus, inventories have been declining for nine days in a row. Accordingly, inventories have declined from 1322.97 tons to 1253.88 tonnes, that is 69.09 tonnes or 5.22%.

If my readings of the GLD inventory spreadsheet are correct never before was such an uninterrupted spell of “pukes."

Stocks

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The Industrials are very near to their all-time highs. Both the Transports and the Industrials have bettered their previous 02/19/2013 high, which confirms the primary trend as bullish. The primary and secondary trend of the markets is bullish.

Today’s volume was lower than Friday’s. Since it was an up day, it has a bearish connotation as higher prices were met by receding volume. Even though the Industrials and Transports made higher highs (which is bullish) the pattern of volume is bearish short term, as explained here, which suggests that a secondary reaction might develop soon.



Gold and silver

SLV and GLD closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

As to the miners ETFs, GDX and SIL closed down and made a lower low. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:

 

Data for March 4, 2013





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY



SPY
Bull market started
11/15/2012 135.7
Bull market signaled
01/02/2013 146.06
Last close
03/04/2013 152.92
Current stop level: Bear mkt low
135.7




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




4.70% 12.69% 7.63%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD)



GLD
Bull market started
05/16/2012 149.46
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 160.54
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 161.16
Current stop level: Sec React low 11/02/2012 162.6




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.39% 7.83%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV)



SLV
Bull market started
06/28/2012 25.63
Bull market signaled
08/22/2012 28.92
Exit December 20
12/20/2012 29
Current stop level: Sec React low 11/02/2012 29.95




Realized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt





0.28% 13.15%





DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
07/24/2012 17.08
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 21.83
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 21.69
Current stop level: Sec React low 11/15/2012 21.87




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-0.64% 26.99% 27.81%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
05/16/2012 39.56
Bull market signaled
09/04/2012 47.77
Exit January 23
01/24/2013 44.56
Current stop level: Sec React low 12/05/2012 45.35




Realized Loss % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-6.72% 12.64% 20.75%



Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist.

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